Category Archives: Geopolitics

Good Luck Forecasting The Ukraine

Stock market analysts — known around here as z-vals due to the zero-validity of their 50 pct mistake rate — are busy forecasting what the turmoil in the Ukraine will mean to financial markets. Here we go again. There is no way to know, but that doesn’t stop them from posing as if there is. […]

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From Sunday’s Kelly Letter

In his new book, The End of War, John Horgan of the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey claims that exceptions to the rule of violence in the wild prove that violence is not an inherent part of human nature. He presents cases of bands of chimps and orangutans that live peacefully in contrast […]

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Does Egypt Matter to Investors?

Good morning! Let’s look at Egypt: ______________________________ OVERVIEW Oil Prices | Oil gets expensive when there’s trouble in the Middle East, but Egypt is a minor player. Global Inflation | Egypt’s uprising provides evidence that the sinking dollar is creating inflation that hurts emerging economies. Food Prices | Emerging economies are especially prone to social […]

Also posted in Finance at First Light, Global Economy, Inflation | Comments closed

Global Currents

In brief: Riccardo Barbieri argues that China’s swelling currency reserves may relegate the dollar and euro to trading ranges, “effectively ending their free float in the market.” Overnight in Tokyo, the dollar fell to “a fresh post-intervention low against the yen” of 83.23, despite the Sept. 15 dollar-buying spree by the Bank of Japan. Traders […]

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A Look At Geopolitics And China’s Rise to Power

This morning’s Kelly Letter contains the third part in a three-part series I’ve done on the potential for military conflict over oil as China rises, demands more of the world’s resources, and becomes aggressive in Asia. If you’d like to read this morning’s installment, which focuses on Japan’s caving in to China’s demands last Friday […]

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