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China Riots

Two years into the pandemic, China was losing its “zero Covid” goal.

Did the communists in charge learn anything? Nope. They refuse to acknowledge that Covid is now endemic, part of the fabric of life, constantly mutating and immune from containment measures.

Xi Jinping’s legitimacy is in doubt as his country rises up against its antiquated totalitarian government. Enough with strongman leaders. Follow the chants of the Shanghai crowd: “Xi Jinping! Step down!”

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Real Earnings Yield

The problem with high inflation, for investors, is that it reduces earnings yield. In this episode, I show how.

Have a happy Thanksgiving!

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Economic Issues of 2023

It’s good to be back! I missed you over the past five weeks, and appreciate the many emails I received saying you missed me.

The economic issues of 2023 are coming into focus. They include a US recession, sovereign debt risk, housing markets, China’s slowdown, and Europe’s gas risk.

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Posted in Geopolitics, Inflation, Kelly Letter Podcast | 2 Responses

The Summer Recovery is Repeating

And for the same reason: Investors think inflation is heading lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key rate less than expected, and yields and the dollar cooled off at the beginning of this week. That kicked off October with the biggest two-day rise in the S&P 500 since March.

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Feel Better: High Interest Rates Won’t Kill Stocks

Inflation is much more important.

Stocks have done well in both rising and falling interest rate environments. Inflation is the bigger danger, and the Fed is fighting it hard. Good news: Stocks do very well in falling inflation environments—and we should be heading into one.

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If you’re not a Kelly Letter subscriber, why not? I’d like to welcome you!

Please subscribe here.

Posted in Inflation, Kelly Letter Podcast | Comments closed
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