Market Report for Thursday, May 15, 2025
Wall Street kept its head above water Thursday, paddling through oil-country rumors, retail grumbles, and supply shock whispers. The Nasdaq paused for breath, but the rest of the market managed a modest rise despite a fresh round of tariff Tetris for corporate America.
Level Change 5/15/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.7 Dow
-0.2 Nasdaq
+0.1 Nasdaq 100
+0.4 S&P 500
+0.2 S&P 400
+0.6 S&P 600
Stocks are trading like last month’s panic was just a fever dream. The S&P 500 is within 4% of record highs, and the Nasdaq 100 has pole-vaulted from bear to bull. Easing trade tensions and a White House that sounds less like it’s spoiling for a fight are giving buyers reason to keep pressing the gas.
And today, mixed data, middling earnings, and muted Fedspeak left equities to interpret their own tea leaves. They brewed a mild blend.
Bonds reminded everyone who’s boss, and gave permission for stocks to stretch their legs. Investors exhaled as Treasury yields edged lower. The 10-year yield fell 10 basis points to 4.43%, easing pressure on equities after flirting with 4.50% earlier in the week. It wasn’t a breakout, but it was a break.
Retail sales flubbed the forecast across the board—headline, core, control group all underwhelmed. March was revised higher, softening the sting, but April showed that shoppers didn’t just pause, they RSVP’d no.
However, core PPI surprised to the downside in its biggest monthly drop in five years, thanks to sagging wholesale margins on machinery and vehicles. Not bad news, suggesting as it does that inflation’s still curled up somewhere in the supply chain, hitting snooze.
Initial jobless claims ticked up a bit less than feared, but continuing claims moved higher. Industrial production flatlined, the Empire State survey flopped, and the NAHB housing index sank to a six-month low. The Philly Fed missed, but not by much—an achievement in a world where “less disappointing” counts as bullish.
Fed Chair Powell skipped rate talk Thursday, preferring the safer pastures of long-term strategy tweaks and a renewed love letter to the 2% inflation target. He warned the economy may be entering a stretch of frequent supply shocks, a theme he’s repeated in recent weeks. Tariffs didn’t make the script this time, but Powell and others have made clear: they expect tariffs to slow growth and stoke inflation—just the kind of balancing tightrope central bankers dream about.
Corporate highlights offered a study in contrasts.
Walmart (WMT -0.5%) beat earnings and stuck to its full-year guidance, but warned that even it can’t outmuscle tariffs forever. “We will do our best to keep our prices as low as possible,” said CEO Doug McMillon, but tariffs don’t shop at Walmart. April and May have already seen sticker creep. By June, said CFO John David Rainey, shopping carts will bear the full weight of a trade policy even its architects can’t quite explain. About 15% of Walmart’s products come from China—the tariff minefield—while 60% are groceries, mostly tariff-proof thanks to domestic and North American sourcing. Unfortunately, canned corn doesn’t offset a $50 toaster.
Cisco (CSCO +4.9%) beat estimates and talked up AI momentum: customers are spending big on security and software, but didn’t panic-order ahead of tariff hits. Sure, maybe a client here or there pulled the trigger early, said CEO Chuck Robbins, “But we looked at a ton of data points to see if we saw any signs of broad-based pull-ahead business, and we did not.” In this economy, AI spending is right up there with bread and milk.
Meanwhile in Qatar, Trump took time to scold Apple (AAPL -0.4%) for shifting iPhone production from China to India in a bid to sidestep tariffs. Build them in America, he urged, apparently unfazed by the $3,500 price tag such patriotism would require. That’s Wedbush’s estimate for a US-made model. Apple CEO Tim Cook may be Trump’s friend, but he’s not suicidal. Triple the price, and even Apple fans might start making eye contact again.
And in coffee news, Starbucks (SBUX +0.8%) is reportedly considering selling part of its struggling China business, according to Bloomberg. The Seattle siren has been out-foamed by local champs like Luckin and Chagee, which have now set their sights on US shores. America, gird your loins: the next great trade war may be fought in tapioca pearls and lavender cold brew.
No blowouts, no breakdowns. Just a market inching through muted data, cautious guidance, and the drip-drip of tariff fallout. Some days, treading water is a win.
— Jason Kelly
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