Credit Cockroaches: Notes on Another Non-Crisis

Sometimes, the only thing contagious is fear.

I’m still getting emails about credit contagion risk. And with each new stock-market high, someone quips, “What goes up…”

All this because last month brought back the eerie music of 2008, at least for a few bars.

Tricolor, the nation’s third-largest used-car chain; and First Brands, a parts maker with more hidden debt than fenders; imploded almost simultaneously. They’d allegedly pledged the same collateral to multiple lenders and stuffed some $2B of loans off their balance sheets.

Fifth Third Bank swallowed a $200M loss, JPMorgan $170M, Barclays $150M, and the financial commentariat reached for its favorite insect metaphor. “When you see one cockroach…” sighed Jamie Dimon.

Let’s turn a gimlet eye on the supposed infestation…

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