In this video, I answer recently emailed subscriber questions about the war in Ukraine, its impact on the stock market, and managing our plans.
In the show notes below the video on YouTube, you can click the times to jump straight to a section:
(0:21) What would a third world war do to the stock market? Would it still make sense to invest in such a time?
(1:35) How stocks fared through various geopolitical events.
(4:06) Wars are economically complex, helping some areas, hurting others. Stocks are good investments during wars.
(4:39) If any event became big enough to eliminate the stock market, you would no longer care about your portfolio anyway.
(8:55) Is this crash different from the ones in 2000, 2008, and 2020?
(10:24) The subprime mortgage crash of 2008 was the worst because it looked like the pillars of the financial system were collapsing. If stocks could get through that, they’ll get through anything.
(11:17) Stockwise, the current crash looks like no big deal. Each factor of its narrative is typical, and temporary.
(14:34) Will this be another V-shaped recovery, or an L-shaped one? How will a slow recovery affect our plans?
(16:20) No reason to expect an L-shaped recovery. Earnings are fantastic. Jobs are plentiful. People are flush with cash.
(18:00) Our plans would ride out a slow recovery. There’s NEVER a change in what we do.
(18:27) When will war-related price increases abate?
(21:40) Will six and a half years be enough to recoup losses?
(23:01) Should investors move now to dividend stocks?
(24:41) Are we near the bottom?
(25:54) Could the war in Ukraine cause a recession, and how would one affect our portfolio?
(27:29) With market indices so low, why don’t we buy now?
(29:28) I’m pleased to see the spirit of the plans pervading people’s thinking, instilling an instinct to buy when prices are down.
(30:45) No matter how fancy you make your metric, you can’t know that this is the bottom, so stick with our quarterly schedule.
(31:33) Investors who are all-in to stocks, and have no buying power, should simply hold for the recovery.
(33:30) How would the Nasdaq 100 be affected if China took Taiwan’s semiconductor industry?
(37:35) Is QYLD the best income fund for our Income Sig plan?
(39:09) QYLD did better than XYLD in the Covid crash.
NOTE: I mistakenly said that QYLD is older than XYLD. Actually, XYLD started in June 2013 and QYLD started in December 2013. Apparently, I confused XYLD with their cousin RYLD, which began in April 2019. This mix-up does not change the rest of my thoughts on the Income Sig plan.
Want more videos like this? Subscribe to The Kelly Letter YouTube channel.
Thank you for watching!
2 Comments
Bravo Jason. Nice to see videos like this as an antidote to the sensationalism of normal business outlets who daily proclaim the sky is falling… better get out now! Sometimes I think they are in cahoots with the smart money who says “let’s scare em so we get some better prices out there”…
Thank you Jason for answering our questions and sharing your views. I highly appreciate the serenity and the profoundness of your thoughts. It is extremely helpful to position the perspective without emotions and to stick to the plan.
I liked to see that we are eager to buy in such circumstances. A nice testimony of the adhesion to your philosophy.
Thank you again for taking care of our community.