In this video, I’ll show you one way to improve your stock market backtesting results. This method is the one used by my research partner Roger Crandell and me when refining The 9% Signal. One common problem with backtesting is curve fitting, which is finding a system in retrospect that would have maximized returns in […]
Author Archives: Jason Kelly
How to Handle Rising Interest Rates
In this video, I’ll consider whether you need to take any steps to prepare for higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve has signaled its desire to raise interest rates. From The Telegraph: [Story shown in the video, at 0:24.] There are three primary areas of your financial life to review in preparation for higher rates […]
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Stock Market Analysts Are Useless
In this video, I’ll provide more evidence that stock market analysts are useless, with help from Sarah Gordon at the Financial Times, who recently summarized today’s installments. I call analysts “z-vals” for their 50% mistake rate. It’s a shorthand of the term “zero-validity environment” used by Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow […]
Do Investors Need News?
In this video, I’ll consider whether investors should see any difference between fake news and useless news. Since Donald Trump was elected, there’s been an obsession with fake news. This story from Politico shows Facebook in the fray: [Story shown in the video, at 0:25.] Factually incorrect news is obviously useless, but what about factually […]
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How to Use Leveraged ETFs
In this video, I’ll show you the right way to use leveraged ETFs. Their high volatility requires a set of defined reactions. Leveraged funds were first offered to investors in the early 1990s. The first leveraged ETFs appeared in 2006. The idea behind leveraged funds is to increase an investor’s performance by magnifying the movement […]
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