This page provides a running tally of stock market forecast accuracy. If other, larger studies are any indication, it will eventually settle on a 50% accuracy rate, same as a coin toss.

It’s important to understand that stock market forecasters cannot add value to your investing performance. Acting on their hunches will reduce your profit. It’s best to call them something that reminds you to ignore them: Z-vals.

The term z-val (“zee val”) is a shorthand introduced in The 3% Signal for “zero-validity forecasters” and “zero-validity environment.” The latter phrase was coined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, where he wrote that “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.”

This page is the Z-val Zone of Stock Market Forecasts.

The table below lists forecasts as they’re added. Accuracy is displayed once a z-val has at least one forecast tracked. Recent forecasts are shown below the table. For a complete history, see the Z-val Zone Judgment Schedule.

The purpose of this page is not to harm anybody’s reputation, but to show investors that guessing games don’t work. Click on some of the names below. Read their convincing forecasts. Notice:

1. The list of worries is a repeating one.
2. Bearish forecasts are usually wrong.
3. The way to win is to stick with an effective plan.

I recommend my Signal system of rational reaction as the best effective plan for Point 3 above. It takes into account the repeating factors of the stock market and its historical tendencies, and reacts rationally to what unfolds, no forecasting required.

Once you understand that forecasting is unhelpful, join me in looking only at past prices instead of guessing future ones. It will boost your performance and lower your stress.

To beat the market using a proven forecast-free system, please sign up for The Kelly Letter.