“The fearless forecast for 2016 is that the Dow will hit 11,500. …
“The reason I see the Dow falling to 11,500 is because I see a recession coming in the United States. In fact, I think we already are in it; it just has not been made official. Bear markets come with recessions, and the average bear market is a drop of 37%.
“So what I am calling for is an average recession with the concomitant average bear market drop, and that gets us to 11,500.”
— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly
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| Z-val: | Ken Moraif |
| Via: | Money Matters |
| Date: | 1/2/16 |
| Disposition: | Long-Term Bearish |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average on 12/31/15: | 17,425 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average on 12/30/16: | 19,763 |
| Change: | +13.4% |
| Judgment: | Wrong |
Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.
