Category Archives: Uncategorized

Last week saw a subtle but important shift in the way economic data were interpreted. During most of the rally, any improvement in data was heralded as proof that the worst was behind us and the future a ramp upwards with only the degree of incline in question. Merely an upward bias in economic data […]

It looks like the Iran nuclear stand-off as an oil price mover has been pushed out a few weeks. I wrote on Tuesday that the risk of military action against Iran by either the US, Israel, or both is growing, and that such action would cause oil prices to spike. The Geneva talks concluded yesterday. […]

The International Monetary Fund updated its Global Financial Stability Report yesterday. I received a barrage of emails from analyst cohorts telling me about the green lights provided by the report. I dove in, and came away with less an impression of green lights than a slight flickering of the red from being lit up so […]

Today’s reading is a collection of excerpts suggesting caution. Doug Kass: Despite the strong share price momentum and the aforementioned emerging optimistic economic/profit consensus, I continue to hold on to the variant view that the markets have likely peaked for the year based on the existence of nontraditional headwinds, an end to decades of aggressive […]

The biggest risk of higher oil prices looks to be the latest storm brewing in the Middle East. Our contention has been that oil prices are destined to slip back to their pre-stock-bounce range once economic reality sets in and demand remains persistently low. To that end, we own a hedge against falling oil prices. […]