THE CHASE Yes, Putin is capable of causing boundless suffering. Just ask Grozny. He used vague language to say Russia’s nuclear arsenal is ready, probably to distract from his lack of success in Ukraine. Missile defense is good these days, probably even better than publicly known. Vlad’s looking nutty. He accused the Jewish president of […]
Author Archives: Jason Kelly
No Time to Sell
The S&P 500 entered correction territory yesterday. At the session’s intraday low of $425.86, SPY was -10.3% year-to-date, before ending the session at $429.57. Blame went to Russia, as usual recently. Barron’s wrote that stocks went “reeling in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict…” In the short term, probably so, but remember that in the long […]
Posted in Portfolio Management
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Omicron Update
Here’s a little comfort on the Omicron front. In last Sunday’s Kelly Letter, I outlined why I doubted the Omicron variant would have much of an impact. My reasons included: South Africa sounded the alarm early, unlike certain other countries one might mention, and this early warning immediately activated worldwide surveillance and research. The world […]
Posted in Coronavirus Digest
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A Permabear Strikes Back
At the end of July, I wrote an article, “Jeremy Grantham Knows Nothing,” providing an update on the high-profile bear whose crash call I’ve followed all year. His initial forecast was for the stock market to collapse in spring. When that failed to materialize he changed the schedule to this fall, warning that the trigger “could […]
Posted in Stock Market Forecasts
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Jeremy Grantham Knows Nothing
I have followed Jeremy Grantham this year since Note 3 sent January 17, not because he’s more accurate than other z-vals but because he’s an industry darling, one of the big kahunas everybody loves to quote because he’s considered a really smart guy. But smarts don’t count in zero-validity environments. Experience doesn’t accrue to a […]
