Category Archives: Stock Market Forecasts

We Would Exploit a Grantham/Dent Spring Crash

In this year’s Note 3 of The Kelly Letter, sent to subscribers on January 17, I wrote about Jeremy Grantham’s bearish call: At the beginning of the year, he wrote that we’re in a “real humdinger” of a stock bubble that will burst in spring. The co-founder of Boston-based asset management firm Grantham, Mayo & […]

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Now Goldman is Bullish

Two weeks ago, on March 31, I sent you an email with the subject: “Goldman is bearish, so what?” The Kelly Letter had just followed its quarter guidance—enormous buy signals across the board—and some subscribers were worried that it had done so right into the maw of a crash foretold by none other than Goldman […]

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Goldman is bearish, so what?

Our first-quarter rebalancing went without a hitch yesterday. We locked arms and held the line. Nobody in our group sells low. By chance, the market rose immediately after we bought. I have since received emails wondering if I think it will be all up from here, that the stock market is already looking ahead to […]

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Ignore the Stock Market Permabears Yet Again

SUMMARY: Stock market permabears forever warn about a crash, and for good reason. It makes for reliable marketing because the stock market declines multiple times per year, on average. Soon after making their predictions, the permabears can often say they told us so. What they leave out is that their advice costs investors who follow […]

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Here Comes the Stock Market Knee-Jerk

Sam Wang at Princeton Election is going to be eating a bug, after all. He’s the poll aggregator who assigned a greater-than-99% chance of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, who wrote at Twitter on October 19: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.” Bon appetit, […]

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