At the end of July, I wrote an article, “Jeremy Grantham Knows Nothing,” providing an update on the high-profile bear whose crash call I’ve followed all year. His initial forecast was for the stock market to collapse in spring. When that failed to materialize he changed the schedule to this fall, warning that the trigger “could […]
Category Archives: Stock Market Forecasts
Jeremy Grantham Knows Nothing
I have followed Jeremy Grantham this year since Note 3 sent January 17, not because he’s more accurate than other z-vals but because he’s an industry darling, one of the big kahunas everybody loves to quote because he’s considered a really smart guy. But smarts don’t count in zero-validity environments. Experience doesn’t accrue to a […]
We Would Exploit a Grantham/Dent Spring Crash
In this year’s Note 3 of The Kelly Letter, sent to subscribers on January 17, I wrote about Jeremy Grantham’s bearish call: At the beginning of the year, he wrote that we’re in a “real humdinger” of a stock bubble that will burst in spring. The co-founder of Boston-based asset management firm Grantham, Mayo & […]
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Now Goldman is Bullish
Two weeks ago, on March 31, I sent you an email with the subject: “Goldman is bearish, so what?” The Kelly Letter had just followed its quarter guidance—enormous buy signals across the board—and some subscribers were worried that it had done so right into the maw of a crash foretold by none other than Goldman […]
Goldman is bearish, so what?
Our first-quarter rebalancing went without a hitch yesterday. We locked arms and held the line. Nobody in our group sells low. By chance, the market rose immediately after we bought. I have since received emails wondering if I think it will be all up from here, that the stock market is already looking ahead to […]
