Category Archives: Stock Market Forecasts

Now Goldman is Bullish

Two weeks ago, on March 31, I sent you an email with the subject: “Goldman is bearish, so what?” The Kelly Letter had just followed its quarter guidance—enormous buy signals across the board—and some subscribers were worried that it had done so right into the maw of a crash foretold by none other than Goldman […]

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Goldman is bearish, so what?

Our first-quarter rebalancing went without a hitch yesterday. We locked arms and held the line. Nobody in our group sells low. By chance, the market rose immediately after we bought. I have since received emails wondering if I think it will be all up from here, that the stock market is already looking ahead to […]

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Ignore the Stock Market Permabears Yet Again

SUMMARY: Stock market permabears forever warn about a crash, and for good reason. It makes for reliable marketing because the stock market declines multiple times per year, on average. Soon after making their predictions, the permabears can often say they told us so. What they leave out is that their advice costs investors who follow […]

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Here Comes the Stock Market Knee-Jerk

Sam Wang at Princeton Election is going to be eating a bug, after all. He’s the poll aggregator who assigned a greater-than-99% chance of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, who wrote at Twitter on October 19: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.” Bon appetit, […]

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Just Normal To and Fro

The following is from this year’s Note 29 of The Kelly Letter, which went out to subscribers last Sunday morning. The simple allocation in our three tiers works well through various market environments because we own asset classes that do not correlate. This is the only distinction that matters. Diversification among different types of stocks, […]

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