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Market Report for Wednesday, September 17, 2025

The Fed trimmed a quarter-point in the most over-advertised policy shift since Y2K fizzled, and markets yawned accordingly. Stocks flickered red, green, then beige when Powell confirmed what everyone already knew.

Level Change 9/17/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.6 Dow
-0.3 Nasdaq
-0.2 Nasdaq 100
-0.1 S&P 500
-0.2 S&P 400
-0.1 S&P 600

El Comité del Shrug’s new fed funds target of 4% to 4.25% was as surprising as Congress raising the debt ceiling.

The dot plot pointed to another half-point of easing before year-end, a conclusion reached despite a cameo from Trump acolyte Steven Miran, the freshly minted governor whose Fed résumé runs one page, double-spaced.

Nominated September 2, confirmed September 15, sworn in yesterday, voting today, Miran set the land-speed record for joining the world’s most ponderous committee.

His White House patrons pressed for a half-point cut, maybe even a cannonball into negative rates, but Fed Chair Powell and the grown-ups stuck with quarter steps. “NIRP’s for twerps,” as they say.

Powell’s press conference stressed that inflation still needs watching and politics plays no role in monetary policy.

He downplayed the sway of any one voter, particularly one still wearing a White House ID badge. “The only way to move things around is to be incredibly persuasive … to make strong arguments based on the data,” Powell said. Marching orders don’t count as evidence.

Markets met the cut with studied indifference. The Dow eked out a gain, the Nasdaq sulked, and midcaps drifted. Traders knew the playbook: cut a little, promise more, and insist the Fed is independent even as new governors arrive with instructions still warm from the Oval Office printer.

Conviction was in short supply. “Forecasting is very difficult even in placid times,” Powell admitted. “Right now is a particularly challenging time—even more than usual.” Translation: your guess is as good as his.

The labor market slowdown, he explained, is more about supply constraints than collapsing demand, econo-speak for people want jobs, they just can’t find them. “In a healthier economy, healthier labor market, there would be jobs for those people. But now the hiring rate is very, very low,” he said.

So ended the most scripted monetary maneuver in years.

The next Fed meeting is penciled in for October 29, probably in Donald Trump’s living room for convenience. Tea service by Melania, tinctures of Ambien added to make unanimity come easy.

— Jason Kelly

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Market Report for Monday, September 15, 2025

Wall Street tiptoed to fresh records Monday, a quiet lap before Wednesday’s rate-cut Powell hour. Tech did the pulling: Google broke a $3T market cap, Tesla rediscovered gravity’s off switch. Even gold joined the PR team.

Level Change 9/15/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.1 Dow
+0.9 Nasdaq
+0.8 Nasdaq 100
+0.5 S&P 500
-0.1 S&P 400
+0.0 S&P 600

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched records, powered by megatech’s eternal glow.

Google (GOOG +4.3%) vaulted into the $3T club — only the fourth member, dues payable in antitrust filings — on AI enthusiasm and the comfort of being everyone’s monopoly of choice.

Tesla (TSLA +3.6%) helped pull the caravan, somehow growing sales in 30 markets despite its Musky ringmaster. The “Pre-Crazy Elon Edition” bumper sticker seems to be working. Production at Tesla’s Gruenheide plant in Germany is set to ramp.

Yields stayed obliging. The 10-year Treasury dipped to ~4.0% late last week, fattening multiples and lifting bond math spirits. Falling yields make corporate earnings look bigger in the funhouse mirror of valuation guesswork. Year-to-date, investment-grade bonds are up about 6.4%, already beating their starting yield. With cuts on deck, short bills should slip faster than Powell dodges straight answers, but a modest curve steepen (short rates diving while long ones dawdle) could blunt bondholder exuberance. Expect the 10-year to meander 4.0%–4.5% absent a shock.

Speaking of cuts: the FOMC looms Wednesday, where futures lean hard to -25 bps and eyes will parse the dot plot for how quickly “one and done” becomes “two or three, maybe four.” Also hovering: whether Trump-appointed economist Stephen Miran clears the Senate in time to grab a chair at this very meeting. Nothing like joining the Fed five minutes before the vote.

The day’s lone macro pothole arrived from New York: Empire State manufacturing slid back below zero (-8.7), with orders and shipments soft. This is more amber light than red, but doesn’t sing “reacceleration.” Tomorrow’s retail sales will say whether the consumer can carry the melody or is just mouthing along at karaoke night.

Geopolitics made a cameo without stealing the scene. US–China talks in Madrid produced a TikTok ownership “framework” (Washington says), enough to cool rhetoric if not tariffs.

Beijing added spice by deciding Nvidia’s 2020 Mellanox buy — a networking firm, not a dermatology clinic — violated antimonopoly law, then launched a dumping probe into analog chips. Nvidia shrugged as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices took the body blows. TXN crumpled 2.4%. China’s timing, naturally, has nothing to do whatsoever with the AI arms race.

On the commodity marquee, gold finally staged its photo op, closing above $3,700 for the first time, an inconvenient reminder that “transitory” is now pushing middle age. It’s the metal’s best year since 1979.

From our Odds and Ends file: Whirlpool told Washington its rivals are cooking the books at customs, undervaluing imports to dodge tariffs. Smuggling 101, now with cloud-based accounting.

Add it up and you get a market happy to pre-price good news, fact-check bad news into oblivion, and wait for Powell. Records are nice; guidance is nicer. The punchline arrives Wednesday: celebration or sell-the-news salad.

— Jason Kelly

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The free list is where markets “might boom.” The paid tier is where we confirm, “Oh, there was a boom, all right.”

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Market Report for Thursday, July 24, 2025

Markets drifted into Thursday’s close like a lazy canoe ride—just enough movement to keep things interesting, but not enough to get wet. Megatech pulled in opposite directions, leaving the rest of the market paddling in circles with salad forks.

Level Change 7/24/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
-0.7 Dow
+0.2 Nasdaq
+0.3 Nasdaq 100
+0.1 S&P 500
-0.9 S&P 400
-1.6 S&P 600

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed fresh all-time highs by the skin of their megacap teeth, though participation was light and enthusiasm lighter. Equal-weight indexes sagged, with small caps stumbling over rising yields and declining relevance.

Google (GOOG +0.9%) did its part to keep the AI dream alive—and well-funded.

Its Q2 report served up hearty beats on revenue, profit, and cloud growth, proof that sprinkling AI jargon over a very non-AI business model can still fool almost everyone. Booming ad sales and YouTube’s transformation from cat-video depot to living room staple added the cherry. The formula is simple: let ads do the lifting while AI takes the bow.

That Google plans to burn through $85B this year to stay in the AI arms race didn’t so much as ruffle a hair on its fan base. The real business funds the AI habit, and investors seem happy to foot the bill.

Then there’s Tesla (TSLA -8.2%), the AI company that still moonlights in car manufacturing.

Shares skidded more than 8% after CEO Elon Musk warned of a few challenging quarters, which, in Musk-speak, could mean anything from tighter margins to colonizing Europa. Car sales fell, regulatory credit revenue plunged, and investors—already acclimated to the smell of scorched expectations—reached for the Febreze.

The Republican budget law scraps EV incentives, something Musk initially waved off, until analysts pegged the cost to Tesla of up to $1B a year. Now, he’s paying attention.

Chinese competitors steadily improve on an already strong base, while Tesla’s earnings trajectory now resembles a Cybertruck panel: oddly shaped and full of dents. Musk tried to redirect attention to robotaxis, which are either the future of transport or a Philip K. Dick subplot, depending on your appetite for faith-based investing.

If Google’s results showed that chasing AI dreams doesn’t preclude turning a profit, Tesla’s reminded us that eccentricity and politics don’t always mix well.

Google executes, Tesla promises. Romantic Wall Streeters can’t resist a good story, but even romance has earnings season.

— Jason Kelly

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Market Report for Thursday, July 17, 2025

Markets made new highs Thursday, further embarrassing the recession forecasters still yelling “Fire!” in a theater now selling standing-room tickets. Evidently, Wall Street misplaced the memo proclaiming the end was nigh.

Level Change 7/17/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.5 Dow
+0.8 Nasdaq
+0.8 Nasdaq 100
+0.5 S&P 500
+1.1 S&P 400
+1.1 S&P 600

It’s been a bruising stretch for bears.

On April 8, with stocks scraping their lows and tariff fear at fever pitch, they stood tall and solemn, predicting imminent recession. Since then, the S&P has rallied 26%, making fools of forecasters and turning index investors into reluctant geniuses. Undeterred, bears have recycled their prophecy for higher prices — same warning, different altitude.

And yet, the climb continues.

Thursday gave bulls a refill, thanks to American consumers indulging their national pastime: spending like tomorrow’s paycheck is guaranteed. June retail sales beat across the board, and the “control group” — the Fed’s favorite GDP proxy — posted its best gain since March. Nobody told the mall there’s a slowdown.

Initial jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week, down to 221K. That’s the lowest since April, suggesting that, despite doomsday tariff talk, employers are still hoarding workers like toilet paper in 2020. Continuing claims even slipped below consensus. So much for cracks in the labor market.

No shift in the rate-cut story, though market pricing tilted a touch more hawkish, now projecting 41 basis points of easing by year-end. The Fed has been assigned the role of monetary Hamlet: to cut, or not to cut. With strong economic data and political pressure competing for center stage, Powell may regret not spending July in Iceland.

Speaking of pressure, President Trump offered mildly constructive remarks on trade talks with India and the EU. This saga drags on, though the script is exhausted and the cast appears to be checking their watches. Europe, reportedly working up tariffs on US services, seems ready for a second act, but this diplomacy-as-drama looks one rewrite from cancellation.

With the supposedly bad news now more than three months baked in, stocks rose. Nvidia (NVDA +1.0%) led the charge, a reminder that when in doubt, buy the GPU overlord.

So ended another session where nothing changed and stocks rallied. Bears insist it’s all built on sand. But as of Thursday, it’s a record-breaking, profit-spitting, job-holding, tariff-dodging sandcastle — and it’s holding just fine.

— Jason Kelly

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Market Report for Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Stocks tiptoed toward fresh highs, then got cold feet. A glimmer of hope from Nvidia’s China chip sales briefly lit the room, but cooler-than-hoped inflation doused the mood. With no Fed rate cut to cling to, investors slid from giddy to grumpy in under six hours.

Level Change 7/15/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
-1.0 Dow
+0.2 Nasdaq
+0.1 Nasdaq 100
-0.4 S&P 500
-1.8 S&P 400
-2.1 S&P 600

It began with promise.

Nvidia (NVDA +4%) got the green light to send throttled chips to China, and markets celebrated accordingly. The Nasdaq climbed, the S&P 500 flirted with a record. But optimism had the life span of a mayfly.

June’s inflation report arrived heavily accessorized. Headline CPI accelerated to 2.7% year-over-year, the fastest since February. Core inflation, the grown-up version, hit 2.9%. That included a 1% jump in tariff-exposed goods like furnishings and a 1.9% spike in appliances, proving that nothing says “America First” like pricier refrigerators.

For the press, the narrative was easy: tariffs bite, prices rise, Trump bad. For investors, the reality was more awkward. Core CPI came in a tick below expectations, ruining the one thing Wall Street truly wanted: panic at the Fed.

Instead, futures markets quietly trimmed bets on rate cuts. Odds now point to 42 basis points of easing this year, just enough to pretend the Fed’s paying attention. So much for a July rate cut. President Trump, always looking to help, reiterated his call for 300 bps of cuts, though the Fed appears to have misplaced his RSVP.

What unfolded was a textbook case of “good news is bad news.” Inflation wasn’t hot enough to force the Fed’s hand, nor cool enough to cheer markets. With no rate-cut lifeline, equities wilted—especially the smaller fry. The equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed its cap-weighted cousin by a full percentage point, suggesting that outside of Nvidia, the party was canceled.

Speaking of the AI chip king, its Beijing charm offensive rolled on.

Nvidia can now resume selling its H20 AI chip to Chinese firms after the Trump administration gave the all-clear. AMD is reportedly prepping its MI308 exports, too. In semiconductor geopolitics, selling yesterday’s chip to tomorrow’s adversary is called a strategic compromise. Or, as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang might call it, staying in business.

On the earnings front, the big banks checked in with the financial equivalent of “could be worse.”

JPMorgan (JPM -0.7%) raised full-year net interest income (NII) guidance and declared consumers alive and swiping. Citi (C +3.7%) and Wells Fargo (WFC -5.5%) posted mixed bags: investment banking strength offsetting the usual suspects in NII. Card balances are up, but delinquencies aren’t — so far, the consumer remains standing, if slightly out of breath.

And that was Tuesday: inflation not hot enough, chips barely legal, and banks muttering polite nothings. With any luck, the next CPI print will panic the Fed into action.

— Jason Kelly

_________________

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