Market Report for Wednesday, September 17, 2025
The Fed trimmed a quarter-point in the most over-advertised policy shift since Y2K fizzled, and markets yawned accordingly. Stocks flickered red, green, then beige when Powell confirmed what everyone already knew.
Level Change 9/17/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.6 Dow
-0.3 Nasdaq
-0.2 Nasdaq 100
-0.1 S&P 500
-0.2 S&P 400
-0.1 S&P 600
El Comité del Shrug’s new fed funds target of 4% to 4.25% was as surprising as Congress raising the debt ceiling.
The dot plot pointed to another half-point of easing before year-end, a conclusion reached despite a cameo from Trump acolyte Steven Miran, the freshly minted governor whose Fed résumé runs one page, double-spaced.
Nominated September 2, confirmed September 15, sworn in yesterday, voting today, Miran set the land-speed record for joining the world’s most ponderous committee.
His White House patrons pressed for a half-point cut, maybe even a cannonball into negative rates, but Fed Chair Powell and the grown-ups stuck with quarter steps. “NIRP’s for twerps,” as they say.
Powell’s press conference stressed that inflation still needs watching and politics plays no role in monetary policy.
He downplayed the sway of any one voter, particularly one still wearing a White House ID badge. “The only way to move things around is to be incredibly persuasive … to make strong arguments based on the data,” Powell said. Marching orders don’t count as evidence.
Markets met the cut with studied indifference. The Dow eked out a gain, the Nasdaq sulked, and midcaps drifted. Traders knew the playbook: cut a little, promise more, and insist the Fed is independent even as new governors arrive with instructions still warm from the Oval Office printer.
Conviction was in short supply. “Forecasting is very difficult even in placid times,” Powell admitted. “Right now is a particularly challenging time—even more than usual.” Translation: your guess is as good as his.
The labor market slowdown, he explained, is more about supply constraints than collapsing demand, econo-speak for people want jobs, they just can’t find them. “In a healthier economy, healthier labor market, there would be jobs for those people. But now the hiring rate is very, very low,” he said.
So ended the most scripted monetary maneuver in years.
The next Fed meeting is penciled in for October 29, probably in Donald Trump’s living room for convenience. Tea service by Melania, tinctures of Ambien added to make unanimity come easy.
— Jason Kelly
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