Market Report for Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Stocks tiptoed toward fresh highs, then got cold feet. A glimmer of hope from Nvidia’s China chip sales briefly lit the room, but cooler-than-hoped inflation doused the mood. With no Fed rate cut to cling to, investors slid from giddy to grumpy in under six hours.
Level Change 7/15/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
-1.0 Dow
+0.2 Nasdaq
+0.1 Nasdaq 100
-0.4 S&P 500
-1.8 S&P 400
-2.1 S&P 600
It began with promise.
Nvidia (NVDA +4%) got the green light to send throttled chips to China, and markets celebrated accordingly. The Nasdaq climbed, the S&P 500 flirted with a record. But optimism had the life span of a mayfly.
June’s inflation report arrived heavily accessorized. Headline CPI accelerated to 2.7% year-over-year, the fastest since February. Core inflation, the grown-up version, hit 2.9%. That included a 1% jump in tariff-exposed goods like furnishings and a 1.9% spike in appliances, proving that nothing says “America First” like pricier refrigerators.
For the press, the narrative was easy: tariffs bite, prices rise, Trump bad. For investors, the reality was more awkward. Core CPI came in a tick below expectations, ruining the one thing Wall Street truly wanted: panic at the Fed.
Instead, futures markets quietly trimmed bets on rate cuts. Odds now point to 42 basis points of easing this year, just enough to pretend the Fed’s paying attention. So much for a July rate cut. President Trump, always looking to help, reiterated his call for 300 bps of cuts, though the Fed appears to have misplaced his RSVP.
What unfolded was a textbook case of “good news is bad news.” Inflation wasn’t hot enough to force the Fed’s hand, nor cool enough to cheer markets. With no rate-cut lifeline, equities wilted—especially the smaller fry. The equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed its cap-weighted cousin by a full percentage point, suggesting that outside of Nvidia, the party was canceled.
Speaking of the AI chip king, its Beijing charm offensive rolled on.
Nvidia can now resume selling its H20 AI chip to Chinese firms after the Trump administration gave the all-clear. AMD is reportedly prepping its MI308 exports, too. In semiconductor geopolitics, selling yesterday’s chip to tomorrow’s adversary is called a strategic compromise. Or, as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang might call it, staying in business.
On the earnings front, the big banks checked in with the financial equivalent of “could be worse.”
JPMorgan (JPM -0.7%) raised full-year net interest income (NII) guidance and declared consumers alive and swiping. Citi (C +3.7%) and Wells Fargo (WFC -5.5%) posted mixed bags: investment banking strength offsetting the usual suspects in NII. Card balances are up, but delinquencies aren’t — so far, the consumer remains standing, if slightly out of breath.
And that was Tuesday: inflation not hot enough, chips barely legal, and banks muttering polite nothings. With any luck, the next CPI print will panic the Fed into action.
— Jason Kelly
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