China’s Debt, 2018 Midterms, Trump Impeachment, Bond Funds, Maslow, and Halloween

These discussions are on The Kelly Letter premium subscriber site:

In a comment below last Sunday’s letter, Henry asks why China’s debt is worse than America’s. I answer that Beijing is probably understating the level of its debt, wastes much of its spending just to grow GDP, and does not enjoy the benefit of controlling the world’s reserve currency.

In a comment below Note 23 sent October 14, Greg suggests that the midterm elections would be better discussed in the Politics forum. I agree, and created a 2018 midterms topic. There, Greg writes that he’s “not very concerned” by the trade war with China: “When I think about Chinese trade practices (or requirements for foreign companies to do business in China), it seems there is a lot to be gained there by challenging the status quo.”

Also in the 2018 Midterms forum, I review the long odds of President Trump being removed from office through impeachment, as outlined in Note 21 sent June 3, then show that those odds remain long now, according to FiveThirtyEight, which sees only a 19% chance of Republicans taking the Senate. Of course, you know how forecasts go.
Earlier this month, Cody asked about which bond fund to use for his 3Sig plan at Fidelity. I answered: “Why not run iShares Bond (AGG)? It’s one of the letter’s approved funds, currently running in 9Sig, and free to trade at Fidelity, It would work for any Sig plan.” Remember that the bond funds shown in the letter are interchangeable among the plans.

A number of people emailed me in praise of last Sunday’s End Note, “Stop and Smell the Roses — for Maslow.” Much appreciated. You can comment on it and any End Note in the End Note Archive, or below the Sunday note in which it was sent. I love the feedback.

Finally, please take a moment to appreciate the Halloween header and sidebar images on the subscriber site! We even put up a special spooky typeface for this month. You can see the site photo history in The Kelly Letter Collection. The Halloween set has only another week to go.

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