Mr. Stack’s technical indicators are still pointing toward a bear market. He’s also worried about the shaky housing market, with price drops and slowing sales showing up in major cities.
“We’re not trying to time the market, but we’re very comfortable with our defensive allocation,” he said. Although he predicted higher volatility a year ago, he was nonetheless surprised by the extremes reached in December, without even “a single hard warning sign of recession on the horizon.”
“Can you imagine,” he asked, “how volatile it will be when we do have those warnings?”
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| Z-val: | James Stack |
| Via: | The New York Times |
| Date: | 1/4/19 |
| Disposition: | Medium-Term Bearish |
| S&P 500 on 1/4/19: | 2532 |
| S&P 500 on 7/5/19: | 2990 |
| Change: | +18.1% |
| Judgment: | Wrong |
Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.
