This page provides a running tally of stock market forecast accuracy. If other, larger studies are any indication, it will eventually settle on a 50% accuracy rate, same as a coin toss.
It’s important to understand that stock market forecasters cannot add value to your investing performance. Acting on their hunches will reduce your profit. It’s best to call them something that reminds you to ignore them: Z-vals.
The term z-val (“zee val”) is a shorthand introduced in The 3% Signal for “zero-validity forecasters” and “zero-validity environment.” The latter phrase was coined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, where he wrote that “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.”
This page is the Z-val Zone of Stock Market Forecasts.
The table below lists forecasts as they’re added. Accuracy is displayed once a z-val has at least one forecast tracked. Recent forecasts are shown below the table. For a complete history, see the Z-val Zone Judgment Schedule.
The purpose of this page is not to harm anybody’s reputation, but to show investors that guessing games don’t work. Click on some of the names below. Read their convincing forecasts. Notice:
1. The list of worries is a repeating one.
2. Bearish forecasts are usually wrong.
3. The way to win is to stick with an effective plan.
I recommend my Signal system of rational reaction as the best effective plan for Point 3 above. It takes into account the repeating factors of the stock market and its historical tendencies, and reacts rationally to what unfolds, no forecasting required.
Once you understand that forecasting is unhelpful, join me in looking only at past prices instead of guessing future ones. It will boost your performance and lower your stress.
To beat the market using a proven forecast-free system, please sign up for The Kelly Letter.
“[T]here are reasons to be cautious.” [Relays warnings by Sam Stovall at S&P, Andrew Garthwaite at Credit Suisse, and David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.] “[U]nder Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, the Fed was tightening policy early in their first terms or had just completed tightening campaigns, resulting in economic weakness […]
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Prominent market technician Ralph Acampora thinks the stock market has more room to run over the near term, despite a trend that has seen the Dow steadily walk back from the psychologically significant level of 20,000. Acampora told MarketWatch recently that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index still have another 5% […]
“Reaching a notional milestone like 20000 isn’t some magical sell signal or an indication that the Dow is doomed to drift or go down from here. “But the index’s own history should remind us all that the good times don’t roll forever. So Dow 20000 should make you cautious, not euphoric. “Owning stocks is a […]
There will be “trouble for equity markets” if the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves beyond 3%, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, warned on Tuesday. Late Tuesday, the 10-year yield US10YT=RR stood at nearly 2.38%. In his first investor webcast this year, Gundlach said after the recent huge run-up in […]
Investors need to watch only one number in 2017 to figure out what returns are going to look like across the various markets, bond guru Bill Gross said Tuesday. Whether the 10-year Treasury yield crosses the 2.6 percent mark will be critical both to the bond market and to stock prices, the fund manager at […]