Q2 2020 3Sig Calculator Demonstration

This video demonstrates how to use the calculator on The Kelly Letter subscriber site, with real data for the 3% Signal plan from Note 26 sent June 28, 2020.

Kelly Letter subscriptions include access to the signal calculator.

Use it to generate your own quarterly Sig system signals using price change only. No guesswork or pundit opinions required.

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  1. Alex
    Posted July 3, 2020 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    Hello Jason,

    Thanks for sharing the video, it is very clear.

    I have a question regarding your Kelly Letter Note 17 where you were talking about oil. I want to start the Kelly system with this commodity (just a small amount) but instead of using XLE, I want to use ERX (2x). My questions are:

    Which bonus or defensive ETF I can use to match with this?

    Which amount relation will be allocate to initiate this (ex. 60/40%)?

    Thank you for your answer.

    • Posted July 3, 2020 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

      You are most welcome for the video, Alex.

      I recommend using one of the general bond funds from the letter for the safe side of your ERX Sig plan. The purpose of that side is to guard buying power, and the general bond funds are suitable for it.

      Yes, a 60/40 initial allocation looks right.

      Note that the Sig plan is not set up to use ERX, so I can’t speak to the odds of success. However, the Sig system should manage the idea better than trying to time it with gut instinct.

      Keep in mind that you should not run such a plan forever because, unlike stocks, the price of oil cannot go up forever. You will eventually need to stop the plan and switch to one of the stock-market versions shown in the letter, but the Sig system does not provide guidance on the right time to exit a bet on oil-price appreciation.

      Happy oil Sigging,

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