“I would gauge the market’s reward to risk as unattractive. To this observer, the market has priced in a smooth and self-sustaining global recovery and has not priced in any number of adverse outcomes (which seem to have a rising probability of occurrence).
“While it is impossible to see the future with precision, in broad terms, I see upside to the S&P Index to about 2070-2100 and the downside to approximately 1830-1870 over the next six to twelve months (compared to the current cash level of 2020) — a negative ratio of $2.60 of risk vs. $1.00 reward (170 S&P points of downside/ 65 S&P points of upside). I don’t like those odds.
“My strategy is to play defense and err on the side of conservatism as the potential for a market correction looms.”
— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly
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| Z-val: | Doug Kass |
| Via: | Tumblr |
| Date: | 1/20/15 |
| Disposition: | Long-Term Bearish |
| S&P 500 on 1/20/15: | 2023 |
| S&P 500 on 10/20/15: | 2031 |
| Change: | +0.4% |
| Judgment: | Wrong |
Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.
