Markets are still moving higher, against my expectations for the summer. I have mixed feelings about that. On the one hand, I’m happy that I didn’t short anything and that my remaining positions are rising. On the other, I wish I hadn’t sold anything earlier. All in all, though, we’re not in too bad of shape. The techniques I write about in my books and here, particularly entering and exiting positions gradually, have worked well.
Here are the bullish factors:
– The Fed tightening cycle is expected to end.
– China will now value the Yuan against a basket of currencies instead of pegging it to the dollar. That’s good for global pricing balance.
– Oil prices have not gone to the moon.
I’ve thought from the beginning of the year that clearing August would put us in good position for a second half run to higher ground. So far, though, we haven’t had the cheaper prices that I expected to presage that move higher. I’m still holding off, as we’re not out of summer yet, but if markets never do see lower prices I may end up buying into a cycle that’s already underway. That’s not my usual approach — I generally buy at the bottom when everybody loathes stocks — but momentum can also work.
Too, my old standby tech trade, Sun, has not risen much in this summer happiness. It closed last week at $3.88, still below the $4 demarcation line I mentioned in several previous posts. If we get even a small settling back in August, there could be a chance to get into Sun at $3.50 for a fall/winter run to $5.50.
Let’s not forget Pfizer. That stock is still cheap. If you’re looking for a dollar-cost averaging target that keeps fluctuating in a low range but has every demographic tally in its favor, Pfizer’s your baby. It hasn’t been able to find traction for the past couple of years, but could well be a double from $25. Buying anywhere in its recent price range should prove profitable in the next few years.
I’m looking at several other potential investments. The overarching theme is that I’m waiting for the right prices and am surprised that they haven’t become available yet.
