Author Archives: Jason Kelly

Politics is affecting the stock market more than at any other time in recent history. Every news release from Washington moves the Dow. Nobody is analyzing individual companies in this environment because stocks move as a block based on actions by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, the Obama Administration, and Congress. Therefore, the impact of […]

It’s important to understand the gravity of our unemployment situation. Last month, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.6%. As the following chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows, there have been only four previous times since 1948 that the rate has exceeded 7.5%: From the data series, these are the only years since […]

The Kelly Letter took advantage of the two-day rally last Thursday and Friday to open a hedge against another leg lower in the market. We had previously set a limit buy price on the hedge 13% lower than its Jan. 30 close. I explained to subscribers in a note sent Feb. 1 that the reason […]

From Fitch via FT, we learned yesterday that credit card delinquencies reached a record high in January and that further deterioration is likely as the economy slows and unemployment rises. Payments at least 60 days late climbed nearly 0.5% last month to a record 3.75%. Charge-off rates in January came in 40% higher than a […]

Several people have written to get my take on the market’s current trend. Despite all the excitement around the porkulus bill, the tax cheats appointed to high office (including the IRS — see below), the climbing unemployment rate, the move to protectionism, the bad bank idea, and everything else, the market is steadfastly going…nowhere. From […]