“With bonds, we’re at the peak of the biggest financial bubble in world history. This is a very big deal. “Interest rates move in very long cycles. They went up from the mid-1940s to the early ’80s, when long-term government bonds peaked at close to 16%, and T-Bills at over 16%. I thought they hit […]
Author Archives: Jason Kelly
How David Stockman Got the 2016 Stock Market Wrong
SUMMARY: In this video, I remind you of the need to ignore pundit commentary on the stock market. As an example, I shine a light on David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan Administration, who got the 2016 stock market entirely wrong, pointing investors to the sidelines during […]
The Upheaval of 2016
The Upheaval of 2016 by Jason Kelly The polls and the pundits, they got it all wrong, this year’s election that lasted so long. Crowds cheered outsiders from the left and the right, but the pros dismissed both crowds as just impolite. Saying Bernie and Trump did not belong, they flagged Hillary as their winner […]
Posted in US politics
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Here Comes the Stock Market Knee-Jerk
Sam Wang at Princeton Election is going to be eating a bug, after all. He’s the poll aggregator who assigned a greater-than-99% chance of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, who wrote at Twitter on October 19: “It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug.” Bon appetit, […]
Posted in Stock Market Forecasts
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Jakobsen: Election to Cause Volatility
“Clearly what we have right now is a market that is finally realizing that this could be a repeat of what we saw in the UK in terms of Brexit — not necessarily meaning that Trump will prevail, but certainly that it will be much tighter come election day. “That’s really the theme of the […]
