Powell Discovers Valuations

Market Report for Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Stocks stumbled today, megatech limping like a greyhound after a night at the track. Breadth was positive, indicating the small fry didn’t drown quite as fast as the whales. From the Zen riddler lectern, Powell reprised his comments from last week, and in the Q&A, discovered valuations.

Level Change 9/23/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

-0.2 Dow
-1.0 Nasdaq
-0.7 Nasdaq 100
-0.6 S&P 500
-0.1 S&P 400
-0.2 S&P 600

Wall Street pulled a muscle.

After yesterday’s buoyant romp, the market remembered gravity, with the Nasdaq shedding a full point while Nvidia and Amazon played ballast in the wrong hot-air balloon. Equal-weight S&P beat its cap-weighted cousin, proof that when the giants sneeze, the runts don’t always catch pneumonia.

The day’s story was less “panic in the streets” and more “fine, let’s try defensive ETFs for a change.” Gold glittered, Treasuries inched higher, and utilities got a pat on the head.

On the geopolitical stage, President Trump turned the UN into open-mic night. Yesterday NATO-skeptic, today Ukraine’s hype man, he said Kyiv could reclaim lost land and maybe tack on some Russian acreage. Asked if he thinks NATO should shoot down Russian planes, he answered: “Yes, I do.”

Back in Powell-land, the Fed chair unfurled his thesaurus of dampened enthusiasm. Growth is “moderating,” housing “weak,” spending “slowing.” Risks are “two-sided.” Last week’s quarter-point cut, he insisted, was not “aggressive easing” but “risk management,” as if rebranding stops Wall Street from pawing his leg. And equity prices? “Fairly highly valued.” Bears likened that to calling the Hindenburg “somewhat flammable.”

Across the table, Fed Governor and Trump standard-bearer Bowman shouted from the dovish bleachers: cut now or fall “behind the curve.” Chicago’s Goolsbee put neutral a good 100-125 bp below the current rate but warned against swinging the axe too hard lest inflation return. Atlanta’s Bostic played middle school hall monitor: risks on both sides, move along.

Nvidia, $160B richer from its OpenAI flirtation, fell 2.8% anyway. The Street is beginning to notice the circularity: Nvidia funds startups, startups buy Nvidia chips, and Jensen Huang cackles all the way to the leather-jacket rack. Bank of America called it “ecosystem investing,” like buying your own dinner and tipping yourself on the way out.

So, yes, breadth improved. But when the titans bleed, the minnows just look healthy by comparison.

— Jason Kelly

_________________

Enjoyed today’s market misadventures? They come around often. So should you.

🔗 jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

This entry was posted in Market Reports. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

  • Select Your Subscription

    Disciplined, systematic investing with The Kelly Letter signal plans.

    Monthly Plan
    $105
    / month

    Flexible month-to-month access to The Kelly Letter every Sunday, with all Sig plans, the complete user guide, calculator, and subscriber forums.

    • Weekly Kelly Letter
      (Sunday mornings)
    • Podcast of every letter read by Jason
    • All Sig plans (3Sig, 6Sig, 9Sig, Income Sig)
    • Subscriber-only calculator, user guide, and forums
    Best Value
    Annual Plan
    $1050
    / year

    Save 24% vs monthly. Everything in the Monthly Plan plus a complimentary Wall Street Wink subscription. A comprehensive package for disciplined investors.

    • Weekly Kelly Letter (Sunday mornings)
    • Podcast of every letter read by Jason
    • All Sig plans (3Sig, 6Sig, 9Sig,
      Income Sig)
    • Subscriber-only calculator, user guide, and forums
    • Complimentary Wall Street Wink subscription ($120 value)
    • 24% savings compared with monthly
    Wall Street Wink

    Included Free with Annual Plan

    Annual Kelly Letter subscribers get Wall Street Wink at no extra cost.

    Wall Street Wink — Standalone Subscription

    $100
    per year
    / $10
    per month

    Jason Kelly’s midweek market commentary:
    succinct, insightful, and built for busy schedules.

    • Concise single-session reports
    • Informative, readable analysis
    • Does not include The Kelly Letter
Bestselling Financial Author