Market Report for Monday, June 23, 2025
Wall Street took a good look at the weekend’s missile exchange and decided it wasn’t the end of the world—or even the end of the rally. Iran’s underwhelming counterpunch calmed oil, the Fed whispered sweet rate-cut nothings, and stocks applauded.
Level Change 6/23/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.9 Dow
+0.9 Nasdaq
+1.1 Nasdaq 100
+1.0 S&P 500
+0.8 S&P 400
+1.2 S&P 600
The Middle East took top billing again, but failed to deliver the feared encore.
After the US redecorated three of Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, converting enrichment centers into ventilation experiments, Tehran answered with something closer to a curtsy than a counterstrike. Its missile barrage, aimed at a conveniently vacant US airbase in Qatar and telegraphed hours in advance, landed with all the menace of a scheduled fire drill.
Crude oil tumbled 7.2%, back under $70, as traders priced in what Iran seemed to script: de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz, that perennial geopolitical boogeyman, stayed open as ever. Iran talks a good blockade, but never quite remembers to bring the padlock. No word yet from all those analysts who confidently warned of $100 oil over the weekend. New price target: “never mind.”
With geopolitics back in its box, Wall Street refocused on its enduring obsession: the next Fed move.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she’d back a July cut if inflation behaves. Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee echoed the view, noting that the much-hyped tariff shock hasn’t actually shocked. If inflation doesn’t show up soon, he said, “we never left the golden path.” Goldilocks, meet the dot plot.
In Silicon Valley, Apple (AAPL +0.3%) is circling Perplexity AI, in search of a bespoke end to its Google dependency and, finally, some actual intelligence behind Apple Intelligence. The plan: fold Perplexity’s AI search into Safari, replacing Google as the default and putting a dent in the monopoly. Shares of Google slipped 1% on the idea—Perplexed, you might say.
Tesla (TSLA +8.2%) logged the day’s biggest megatech gain on the back of its long-promised robotaxi debut. The actual event—a few chaperoned joyrides in an Austin neighborhood—fell short of the Cybercab revolution Musk once trumpeted. No steering wheels surrendered, no industries disrupted. But investors treated it like the moon landing. One small step for Teslakind, one giant leap for speculative pricing.
And that was the day: missiles that missed, oil that slipped, and a market that marched on.
— Jason Kelly
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The signal’s starting to crackle. Paid subscribers already adjusted the antenna.
