Market Report for Friday, April 11, 2025
Stocks rose today, closing out one of the most head-spinning weeks in recent memory—coming off an equally nutty one last week. By the closing bell, the S&P 500 had booked its biggest weekly gain since October 2023 and the Nasdaq since November 2022.
Level Change 4/11/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+1.6 Dow
+2.1 Nasdaq
+1.9 Nasdaq 100
+1.8 S&P 500
+1.4 S&P 400
+1.3 S&P 600
The latest trade war salvo came from China, which threw sharp elbows against America’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods with a 125% broadside of its own. At least it mentioned it will ignore future US increases, which seem to appear more often than bedbugs in a budget motel.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said his country is “not afraid,” and China’s Commerce Ministry waved off Washington’s ever-escalating tariff theatrics as “nothing more than a numbers game, with no real economic significance.” It ridiculed Team Trump’s weaponization of tariffs “as a tool of bullying and coercion, turning itself into a joke.”
Although there does seem to be some economic significance going around.
US Treasuries are going pale in the face as the world begins to question whether America’s economic steering wheel is attached to anything at all. Investors dumped US government bonds this week, driving prices lower and—by the laws of inverse correlation between price and yield—yields higher. The 30-year yield posted its biggest weekly jump since 1982.
Instead of US government bonds, the new safe haven appears to be German and Japanese bonds. This switcheroo coincides with the dollar’s steady trip fall the stairs (down more than 3% this week), suggesting the era of US exceptionalism may soon get its closing credits.
Things are getting so nervy that the Fed needed to assure everyone it will step in if markets seize or liquidity dries up.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins repeated the do-nothing official stance on rates, but added music to the message. She said the Fed has tools for market dysfunction and low liquidity, and is “absolutely prepared to move.” Investors liked the sound of that, and handed her partial credit for today’s bounce.
New York Fed President John Williams expects US economic growth to slip under 1% this year, as the trade war drives up inflation and unemployment. Still, it’s go-slow for him and all the Fedsters on the tightrope strung over a fog machine.
Meanwhile, economic data keep arriving like bills after a vacation: unwelcome and piling up.
April preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment missed expectations and notched its fourth straight monthly decline. Inflation expectations rose, with the one-year up 1.7 percentage points to 6.7%, a big jump from 5% in March to its highest since 1981. Longer-term (5 to 10 years) edged up 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%, quietly undermining the Fed’s narrative that long-term inflation expectations remain “well-anchored.” The anchor, it seems, is sliding through sand, and the boat’s drifting steadily from the Fed’s 2% harbor.
Maybe the real hard data will come to the rescue. Q1 earnings season started today, and so far, so good. JPMorgan (JPM +4%) grew profit 9%, while Wells Fargo (WFC -1%) grew it 6%. Morgan Stanley (MS +1.4%) beat earnings expectations. BlackRock (BLK +2.3%) hit record assets of $11.6T. Apparently, someone out there still has money.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted that clients are becoming “more cautious” as geopolitical and trade tensions rise. They seem to dislike inflation, too. He warned that “the economy is facing considerable turbulence,” and his bank is braced “for a wide range of scenarios.” Some of them, one hopes, don’t involve helmets and barf bags.
Those are the winds of Wall Street tonight, where tariffs bite and and bond traders blink harder than someone biting into wasabi they thought was guac.
Kelly Letter subscribers, I’ll make sense of this week in Sunday’s issue. If you’re not a subscriber, sign up at jasonkelly.com.
— Jason Kelly
