Market Report for Monday, April 7, 2025
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More Jittery Than a Pigeon in a Ping-Pong Room
Stocks mostly continued their slide today, but rebounded from an opening crash to something resembling normal volatility. After last week’s 9%-plus dive stripped the feathers right off the swan, today’s dip offered a mild analgesic to trade-war-weary investors.
Level Change 4/7/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
-0.9 Dow
+0.1 Nasdaq
+0.2 Nasdaq 100
-0.2 S&P 500
-1.1 S&P 400
-1.4 S&P 600
An 8.5% trading range that looked more like a cardiogram than a chart showed jitters remaining high on fears President Trump’s trade war might accomplish what few have managed: stagflation by executive order.
Investors perked up at talk of a 90-day pause for negotiations, apparently sparked by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, who floated the idea on X, formerly known as Twitter and still behaving like it. He warned that the alternative was “a self-induced, economic nuclear winter. … We are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.”
An anonymous X account called Walter Bloomberg (no connection to Bloomberg News, other than a gift for headlines) posted that National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Trump was “considering a 90-day pause in tariffs on all countries except China.” When asked where it got the headline, the account said Reuters. Then CNBC picked it up. Then Reuters flashed a headline citing CNBC.
Hassett denied it on Fox News, CNBC issued a correction, and Reuters withdrew its incorrect report. All this caused a 5% spike-’n’-drop on the S&P 500. Markets remain as jumpy as a central banker trying to explain “transitory.”
Trade War Captain Peter Navarro vowed no negotiation with China, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on a separate front, announced negotiations with Japan.
As stocks stabilized on the day, bonds sold off, chalked up to traders locking in recent gains in case the equity panic has passed. iShares US Aggregate Bond (AGG) fell 1.3%, possibly revealing investors deciding the economy is not, in fact, teetering on the edge of ruin.
Oil, however, hit a slick patch, with WTI crude down 2.1% to $60.70 per barrel, its lowest close since April 2021. Goldman Sachs cut its oil demand forecast, citing GDP pressure from tariffs and adding the obvious corollary: reversing tariffs and saying something reassuring for a change might just get people pumping again.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said recent inflation may be “anticipatory” of tariff impacts, but at least long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Apple (AAPL -3.7%) isn’t gazing far down the road just yet — too busy navigating the tariff whirlpool around it. The company plans to soften the blow by shipping more iPhones from India, where the 26% tariff still stings, but not nearly as much as the 54% on goods from China, the 46% from Vietnam, or the 36% from Thailand. It won’t make major supply chain changes yet because the tariff landscape remains “too uncertain.” For now, the stopgap will have to do, a patch on a hull taking on water.
Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal surmised that tariffs could spike the cost of an iPhone 16 Pro from its current $580 to $850, a markup even Cupertino might find hard to market. CEO Tim Cook hopes to get an exemption from the White House, but so far, he doesn’t have the cards. Since December 26, shares of AAPL have slid nearly 30%, leaving investors with a different kind of sticker shock.
Hang in there, fellow ticker tapers.
— Jason Kelly
