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A Rebound by the Hair of a Tariff
This week began in a buoyant mood, with stocks finishing near their best levels today, as though the last month’s malaise had been a misunderstanding. The S&P 500 trimmed its existential crisis to a mere 6% drop from last month’s high, and small caps joined the party with greater enthusiasm, suggesting that even the market’s wallflowers were back on the dance floor.
Level Change 3/24/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+1.4 Dow
+2.3 Nasdaq
+2.2 Nasdaq 100
+1.8 S&P 500
+2.5 S&P 400
+2.6 S&P 600
Traders drew inspiration from none other than the nation’s tariff czar himself, Donald J. Trump. His upcoming April 2nd tariff announcement will apparently be narrower than expected — proof, perhaps, that trade policy by dartboard sometimes hits the mark. The White House may even hand out exemptions like party favors, though Trump also vowed fresh tariffs on autos, lumber, and semiconductors.
Markets remain on the lookout for US trade policy clarity, a mythical creature that spooks easily and never lingers long enough for a snapshot. Analysts warn that ongoing trade theatrics could weigh on Q1 and full-year earnings, especially for companies that sell to places not named “America.”
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic trimmed his forecast to one interest-rate cut this year from two, citing loitering inflation and businesses eager to pass tariff costs to consumers. He said in an interview on Bloomberg that “the appropriate path for policy is also going to be pushed back.”
Bullish baubles include a weakening dollar, which boosts overseas earnings, and hope that the Magnificent Seven might again live up to their billing, now that their collective valuation has been knocked down to a two-year low.
Leading the charge today was Tesla (TSLA +11.9%), whose best day since November was accelerated by Chinese social media chatter about the automaker unleashing its “Full Self-Driving” feature.
Shares of Meta (META +3.8%) also galloped ahead as it and OpenAI each woo India’s Reliance Industries — owner of the world’s largest oil refinery, wireless giant Jio, and a soon-to-be megascale data center powered by its own hydrocarbons. Both firms want Reliance to distribute their AI products across India, now OpenAI’s second-biggest user market. The AI leader’s goal: 1 billion daily active users by year-end, with Indian uptake critical to the effort. Meta is the underdog, as its AI web app barely registers in India. With Reliance as gatekeeper, the road to digital dominance may run straight through a pipeline.
Finally, Disney’s (DIS +0.7%) $350M Snow White reboot debuted not with a song but a DEI seminar. Critics were unkind. National Review called it a “box office dwarf.” Reason dubbed it “socialist Snow White.” The Mouse House may want to consider that not every fairy tale needs a lecture.
— Jason Kelly
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