“Well, I actually didn’t think it was possible to reach our sell trigger today but we did. Therefore, it is now time to sell. …
“Our strategy is not perfect and those of you that have been following me for a long time know that our strategy predicts bear markets but it also predicts bear markets that don’t happen. It is certainly possible that the market will bounce back from here and that this is not the beginning of a bear market. However, now that we have hit our trigger point the odds are very high that this is the bear market that we have been expecting. …
“The 2008 bear market wiped out 12 years of gains in just 17 months. If this is the beginning of the global crisis that I have been calling for, the bear market of 2015 and 16 could be of the same magnitude. Can you afford to go through that again? I think not.”
— Excerpt contributed by Philip Robins
_____________________________________
| Z-val: | Ken Moraif |
| Via: | Money Matters |
| Date: | 8/21/15 |
| Disposition: | Long-Term Bearish |
| S&P 500 on 8/21/15: | 1971 |
| S&P 500 on 8/19/16: | 2184 |
| Change: | +10.8% |
| Judgment: | Wrong |
Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.
4 Comments
I don’t think Brinker has issued a sell signal at all in the recent downturn but he did trigger a buy signal for new money only (since he was already fully invested), issued on 2/10/16. So far, so good. His signal was at S&P 1829 and today S&P is at 1944 which is about 6.25% gain. Of course, whether it is a good call in the long term will only be known in the fullness of time. Ken Moraif has to be drinking serious Milanta these days as he is within about 1% of his S&P sell price (S&P 1971). Bottom line, no one has a crystal ball and you have to do whatever you need to do to sleep at night. Good luck to all.
Hear, hear on the lack of crystal balls out there. Price-reactive strategies are the only way to go. Turn your back on these zero-validity forecasters and start running 3Sig. You’ll sleep soundly while beating the market.
Did Bob Brinker issue a sell signal yesterday?
I didn’t see one, but I’m not sure it matters considering his accuracy rate is 53%, according to CXO Advisory.