Moraif: Reached Sell Trigger

“Well, I actually didn’t think it was possible to reach our sell trigger today but we did. Therefore, it is now time to sell. …

“Our strategy is not perfect and those of you that have been following me for a long time know that our strategy predicts bear markets but it also predicts bear markets that don’t happen. It is certainly possible that the market will bounce back from here and that this is not the beginning of a bear market. However, now that we have hit our trigger point the odds are very high that this is the bear market that we have been expecting. …

“The 2008 bear market wiped out 12 years of gains in just 17 months. If this is the beginning of the global crisis that I have been calling for, the bear market of 2015 and 16 could be of the same magnitude. Can you afford to go through that again? I think not.”

— Excerpt contributed by Philip Robins


Z-val: Ken Moraif
Via: Money Matters
Date: 8/21/15
Disposition: Long-Term Bearish
S&P 500 on 8/21/15: 1971
S&P 500 on 8/19/16: 2184
Change: +10.8%
Judgment: Wrong

Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.



This Forecast


of 6



Created with Snap
This entry was posted in Z-vals and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.


  1. mark
    Posted August 27, 2015 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    Did Bob Brinker issue a sell signal yesterday?

    • Posted August 29, 2015 at 10:12 am | Permalink

      I didn’t see one, but I’m not sure it matters considering his accuracy rate is 53%, according to CXO Advisory.

  2. Caroleann
    Posted February 23, 2016 at 6:03 am | Permalink

    I don’t think Brinker has issued a sell signal at all in the recent downturn but he did trigger a buy signal for new money only (since he was already fully invested), issued on 2/10/16. So far, so good. His signal was at S&P 1829 and today S&P is at 1944 which is about 6.25% gain. Of course, whether it is a good call in the long term will only be known in the fullness of time. Ken Moraif has to be drinking serious Milanta these days as he is within about 1% of his S&P sell price (S&P 1971). Bottom line, no one has a crystal ball and you have to do whatever you need to do to sleep at night. Good luck to all.

    • Posted February 24, 2016 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

      Hear, hear on the lack of crystal balls out there. Price-reactive strategies are the only way to go. Turn your back on these zero-validity forecasters and start running 3Sig. You’ll sleep soundly while beating the market.

  • The Kelly Letter
    A Complete Investment Management System
    The Kelly Letter  every Sunday morning by email.
    Like no other. Many subscribers say this is the best read of their week, astonishing in its ability to distill seven days of noise into one succinct overview of the very few items that might matter. Start your Sundays right!
    A one-page Quick Start Guide
    with page number references to full information in The 3% Signal. You'll receive access to this right away so you can begin transforming your portfolio into a performance machine immediately.
    The 3Sig Calculator.
    A thing of beauty! You'll use it to generate your own personal signals every quarter including exact share amounts to buy and sell based on your account balances. It emails you the results to make later quarters easy by keeping last quarter's numbers at your fingertips. Some subscribers say this tool alone justifies their subscription price.
    The subscriber-only section of this website
    where likeminded investors are commenting on notes and discussing in forums. Jason joins these interactions every day. They're a treasure trove of investing tips and wisdom.
    The archive of Kelly Letter notes.
    It’s a research center, searchable and smartly tagged to make gathering time-stamped material on covered subjects easy.
    The subscriber podcast.
    Jason reads every letter word-for-word. This feature was requested by subscribers who prefer audio learning. They listen on their Monday morning commute, during a workout, or while reading along at their computer.

    Save 17%

    Pay as you go
    Or sign up to receive free email and learn more about the system.
Bestselling Financial Author