Calhoun: Calm Before Storm

“The idea that an economy that performs so poorly that it keeps the Fed on the sidelines is good for stocks is one that can only be based on recent history, one that starts after the 2008 crisis. …

“At some point bad news will be bad news for stocks again but the rest of the markets are already reacting to the bad news as if it were exactly that. …

“Meanwhile, corporate profit margins appear to have peaked and debt incurred for previous stock buybacks is starting to bite, two not entirely unrelated events. Interest expense is eating into profits at the same time revenue growth is harder and harder to come by. And after so many years of low rates, refinancing just doesn’t get companies the jolt to earnings it once did. … leaving company profit growth at the mercy of top line growth, something conspicuous only by its absence the last couple of years. …

“Widening credit spreads, Treasuries and gold outperforming stocks indicate that some parts of the market are already preparing for the storm. Stocks are about the only asset yet to batten down the hatches. If this is the calm before the storm, stock investors are about to get swept overboard.”

— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly

_____________________________________

Z-val: Joseph Calhoun
Via: Alhambra Investment Partners
Date: 10/18/15
Disposition: Short-Term Bearish
S&P 500 on 10/16/15: 2033
S&P 500 on 1/15/16: 1880
Change: -7.5%
Judgment: Right

Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.

Calhoun

Scorecard

This Forecast

Accuracy

of 1

Judged

Forecast

Created with Snap
This entry was posted in Z-vals and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.
  • The Kelly Letter
    A Complete Investment Management System
    The Kelly Letter  every Sunday morning by email.
    Like no other. Many subscribers say this is the best read of their week, astonishing in its ability to distill seven days of noise into one succinct overview of the very few items that might matter. Start your Sundays right!
    A one-page Quick Start Guide
    with page number references to full information in The 3% Signal. You'll receive access to this right away so you can begin transforming your portfolio into a performance machine immediately.
    The 3Sig Calculator.
    A thing of beauty! You'll use it to generate your own personal signals every quarter including exact share amounts to buy and sell based on your account balances. It emails you the results to make later quarters easy by keeping last quarter's numbers at your fingertips. Some subscribers say this tool alone justifies their subscription price.
    The subscriber-only section of this website
    where likeminded investors are commenting on notes and discussing in forums. Jason joins these interactions every day. They're a treasure trove of investing tips and wisdom.
    The archive of Kelly Letter notes.
    It’s a research center, searchable and smartly tagged to make gathering time-stamped material on covered subjects easy.
    The subscriber podcast.
    Jason reads every letter word-for-word. This feature was requested by subscribers who prefer audio learning. They listen on their Monday morning commute, during a workout, or while reading along at their computer.



    $200/year
    Save 17%



    $20/month
    Pay as you go
    Or sign up to receive free email and learn more about the system.
Bestselling Financial Author