Author Archives: Jason Kelly

A Permabear Strikes Back

At the end of July, I wrote an article, “Jeremy Grantham Knows Nothing,” providing an update on the high-profile bear whose crash call I’ve followed all year. His initial forecast was for the stock market to collapse in spring. When that failed to materialize he changed the schedule to this fall, warning that the trigger “could […]

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Jeremy Grantham Knows Nothing

I have followed Jeremy Grantham this year since Note 3 sent January 17, not because he’s more accurate than other z-vals but because he’s an industry darling, one of the big kahunas everybody loves to quote because he’s considered a really smart guy. But smarts don’t count in zero-validity environments. Experience doesn’t accrue to a […]

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TQQQ is Unlikely to Hit Zero in One Session

The following is from the comments section of last Sunday’s Kelly Letter. Q. Subscriber Kenneth asked: What happens if the QQQ loses 34% in a day? Does TQQQ go below zero? A. I answered: It would bottom somewhere just above zero, effectively eliminating the investor’s position. However, this is unlikely to happen. From “Research Behind […]

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My Weimar Reference

My reference to Weimar in last Sunday’s Kelly Letter confused a number of readers. Allow me to clear it up. I wrote: “…a contingent of economists staking careers on inflation warnings willfully ignored, and ignore, assurances from the Federal Reserve and other central banks that it is transitory. It makes perfect sense why early data […]

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CLM Is No Panacea

I wrote in last Sunday’s Kelly Letter about a closed-end fund called Cornerstone Strategic Value (CLM $11.50 -2% YTD). It’s one of many securities I’m auditioning to play a part in an Income Sig strategy for retirement. Please remember that this is a research phase. None of the funds I’ve referenced is a recommendation. I […]

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