Author Archives: Jason Kelly

China’s Debt, 2018 Midterms, Trump Impeachment, Bond Funds, Maslow, and Halloween

These discussions are on The Kelly Letter premium subscriber site: In a comment below last Sunday’s letter, Henry asks why China’s debt is worse than America’s. I answer that Beijing is probably understating the level of its debt, wastes much of its spending just to grow GDP, and does not enjoy the benefit of controlling the world’s reserve […]

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Can Trump Reach 3% Economic Growth?

In this video, I’ll explore whether the Trump administration stands a chance of reaching its goal of 3% economic growth. On the campaign trail, President Trump said he would get the US to 5% annual economic growth. In office, his team lowered this to 3-4%. The economy hasn’t growth at 3% in more than a […]

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Valuation Got Amazon Wrong

In this video, I’ll explore the rise of Amazon.com over the past 20 years, and offer it as evidence that stock market valuation measures can’t be trusted. Amazon.com went public on the Nasdaq on May 15, 1997 at a value of $438M. Today it’s worth $460B (May 2017). Look at the chart from Recode, showing […]

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How to Manage Your Index Funds

In this video, I’ll show you a good system for managing your index funds for high profit and low stress. Notes: Index funds are catching on for their low cost and better performance than active management. Passive funds now more than one-third of market, projected to reach half in five years or so. Fine, but […]

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Fly Fishing Trip Report

Many readers expressed interest in my fly fishing trip with my friend and research partner, Roger Crandell, and asked for details. Here, then, is my first-ever fly fishing trip report. We began in Lake City, Colorado, the only incorporated municipality in Hinsdale County. It’s the least densely populated county in Colorado, with just 843 residents […]

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