Contact Info and Media Kit

Email:

YouTube: /thekellyletter
Facebook: /kellyletter
Twitter: @thekellyletter
LinkedIn: /jasonkelly

Skype: zumawave
Phone: +81 501-014-7773 in Japan (where the local time is here)

Publicist: Mary Pomponio, mpomponio@penguinrandomhouse.com, 212-366-2218, New York

Literary Agent: Sheree Bykofsky, shereebee@aol.com

Bulk Orders: The 3% Signal helps participants in 401(k)s and other retirement plans maximize their returns from the plan’s investment list while minimizing stock market stress. Anybody can do it. Offer the life-changing benefits of 3Sig to members of your organization by giving each of them a copy of the book. Penguin Random House has a program for bulk purchases with your local bookseller that will provide an extra discount and excellent customer service. Please contact them to place a business-to-business order. For assistance locating a store near you, please email Deb Lewis at dlewis@penguinrandomhouse.com.

__________________________________

Media Kit

Book Information


Title: The 3% Signal
Author: Jason Kelly
Publisher: Plume
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0142180955
ISBN-13: 978-0142180952
Date of Publication: February 24, 2015
Retail Price: $16 US (Trade Paper)
Pages: 336

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • A Note on Performance Calculations
  • Introduction: Financial Floundering
    1. Why Markets Baffle Us
    2. Harnessing Fluctuation
    3. Setting a Performance Goal
    4. What Investments to Use
    5. Managing Money in the Plan
    6. The Plan in Action
    7. The Life of the Plan
    8. Happy Signaling
  • Appendix 1. Mark’s Plan
  • Appendix 2. Tools
  • Appendix 3. Rights and Permissions
  • Appendix 4. The Kelly Letter
  • Index

Back Cover Copy

Take the stress out of investing with this revolutionary new strategy from the author of The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, now in its fifth edition

In today’s troubling economic times, the quality of our retirement depends upon our own portfolio management. But for most of us, investing can be stressful and confusing, especially when supposedly expert predictions fail. Enter The 3% Signal. Simple and effective, Kelly’s plan can be applied to any type of account, including 401(k)s — and requires only fifteen minutes of strategizing per quarter. No stress. No noise. No confusion.

By targeting three percent growth and adjusting holdings to meet that goal, even novice investors can level the financial playing field and ensure a secure retirement free from the stress of noisy advice that doesn’t work. The plan’s simple technique cuts through the folly of human emotion by reacting intelligently to price changes and automatically buying low and selling high. Relayed in the same easy-to-understand language that has made The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing such a staple in the investing community, The 3% Signal is sure to become your most trusted guide to investing success.

First Sentence

One day long ago, I found my mother sitting befuddled behind a stack of stock market ideas.

Short Synopses

A simple quarterly system that beats the stock market.

The antidote to low 401(k) performance and high stock market stress.

Two New Terms from the Book

3Sig: Shorthand for “The 3% Signal,” both the book’s title and the technique it describes.

Z-val: Shorthand introduced in The 3% Signal for “zero-validity forecasters” and “zero-validity environment.” The latter phrase was coined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, where he wrote that “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.” This is why stock market forecasters are proven to sport an accuracy rate of about 50 percent, same as a coin toss … yet they continue forecasting.

Three Quotes from the Book

“You’ll discover how to check in quarterly to see whether the stock fund’s growth is below target, on target, or above target, then move money in the appropriate direction between the stock fund and the bond fund. This action, using the unperturbed clarity of prices alone, automates the investment masterstroke of buying low and selling high — with no z-val interference of any kind.”

“What the experts don’t want you to know — but what you’ll never forget after reading this book — is that prices are all that matter. Ideas count for nothing; opinions are distractions. The only thing that matters is the price of an investment and whether it’s below a level indicating a good time to buy or above a level indicating a good time to sell. We can know that level and monitor prices on our own, no experts required, and react appropriately to what prices and the level tell us. Even better, we can automate the reaction because it’s purely mathematical.”

“The stock market is humanity’s monkey mind writ large. For many, there is no greater cacophony, no greater distraction from life than the news cycle connected to financial markets. The more enlightened way to navigate the market is by letting it all go, reducing the chaos to a concise list of prices, visiting that list just four times a year, letting an unemotional formula tell you what the prices mean you should do, and then doing it. This higher state of investing not only performs better, it costs less and uses less of your limited time on Earth.”

Reviews

We often hear, and have come to believe, that models beat experts. Kelly offers the individual investor a simple, mechanical model that instills discipline, removes a lot of self-sabotaging emotion, and has a good track record. Will it continue to outperform? Actually, it just might.
— Brenda Jubin, “Reading The Markets” book review at Investing.com and ValueWalk

Why I’m a Good Guest

If you’re a producer or host, you’ve probably experienced these:

Guests who don’t show up or call at the designated time
Guests who don’t know their subject
Guests who give five-word answers that leave you hanging
Guests who are boring


For your show, you want a guest who knows his subject and can talk about it in a way that’s interesting to your audience. That’s me. I’m good at explaining concepts to beginners, but in a way that makes more experienced listeners nod with joy at hearing somebody put the subject in understandable terms.

I speak in a conversational, humorous tone with a bright personality. Audiences say they enjoy listening to me. Isn’t that the kind of guest you want?

Most producers and hosts who’ve worked with me are eager to do so again. I’m prompt, professional, and good at keeping the conversation flowing. No curt, where-to-from-here kinds of answers from me.

I’d love to join your show, either in-person or by phone. Let’s book something!

Photos

Author Photo

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Book Photo

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Logo

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Author Bio

Short:
Jason Kelly is the author of The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing and The 3% Signal, and six other financial books. He writes about the stock market and runs the 3 percent signal plan in The Kelly Letter, which goes out to subscribers every Sunday morning. He lives in Japan. Visit his website at jasonkelly.com.

Medium:
Jason Kelly is the author of The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing and The 3% Signal, and six other financial books.

He graduated in 1993 from the University of Colorado at Boulder with a bachelor of arts in English. He worked for several years at IBM’s Silicon Valley Laboratory, where he wrote articles and books that won him the Society for Technical Communications Merit Award. He moved from writing about computers to writing about finance, and found his niche in the stock market. Having realized his dream of being able to live and work anywhere in the world, Jason moved to Japan in 2002 and works from his office in the countryside about two hours from Tokyo.

After the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, he founded Socks for Japan, a volunteer organization that hand-delivered 160,000 care packages from around the world to survivors. More than 70 percent of donations came from the United States. In that moment of crisis, seeing return labels from churches, Brownie troops, neighborhood coffee shops, small town light and power departments, Mrs. Wilson’s fourth grade class, and other mainstays of American culture filled him with pride for his country.

He keeps busy writing new books and The Kelly Letter, and exploring Japan. With his sister and business partner, Emily, he co-owns Red Frog Coffee in Longmont, Colorado. Visit his website at jasonkelly.com.

Long:
Please see the About page.

The 3% Signalandwith Jason Kelly

With your bestselling book The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, and popular newsletter The Kelly Letter, you’ve been offering stock market investing advice for over twenty years. You began as a technical writer at IBM in California, with a background in writing. How did you get involved in investing?

That job at IBM’s Silicon Valley Lab started everything. My editor at IBM, Fred Bethke, was superb. He taught me how to write about complex topics in a way that was interesting for readers. Even books on potentially dry subjects, such as mainframe software installation, needed to engage readers and surprise them with wit, fun examples, and other unexpected moments of levity in what they thought would be just a workday slog. If the writing didn’t do this, it didn’t get past Fred. We all learned quickly how to do it right, how to do it consistently, and how to stay on Fred’s good side. We won awards for our work.

I realized after a couple of years in Fred’s technical writing bootcamp that other topics could benefit from the approach. I’d studied investing on my own in college, and decided to write a friendly manual covering the basics to give away as a Christmas present to family members that year, mainly my mom. Before I knew it, photocopies had been distributed widely and I was receiving emails from people I’d never met asking about the book. Somebody suggested I get it published for real, and that book became the first one I published, The Neatest Little Guide to Mutual Fund Investing.

I loved investing, and kept at it. I grew my own account through experimentation, using myself to test most of what I wrote about. I discovered that there’s not as much to successful investing as the industry would have people believe. Conveying the core truths of the business has remained my motivation while writing my Neatest Little Guide series, The Kelly Letter, and most recently The 3% Signal.

________________

Tell us about your research.

Most of it has involved reading academic studies and testing what I’ve found in them. The problem with a lot of academic findings is that they’re impractical for an individual investor managing a portfolio. Anything that is based on holding more than about 20 stocks is a waste of time, because almost nobody can manage that many positions without reverting to index returns or worse, in which case they should just own an index, which is the market as a whole via the S&P 500, for instance. Most pros lose to indexes, and part-timers tend to do a little worse because their portfolios come together only after reading occasional tips from pros. Such hodgepodges don’t work.

Beyond academic research, I’ve interviewed lots of investing experts over the years. Some of them, such as Bill Miller at Legg Mason, have been very informative and willing to help me translate their most successful techniques into methods appropriate for individual investors.

For The 3% Signal, I needed to strike out on my own. It brings together everything I’ve learned in two decades of researching and writing about stock market investing and distills it down to the best practice I’ve been able to devise. I’m proud of it, and believe it has the potential to upend the industry and finally free a legion of individual investors from the stress and indecision that accompany listening to forecasters, who as a group are proven to be wrong half the time. This is not a rhetorical statement. Several academic and industry studies have shown the average accuracy of professional forecasters to be at or a little below 50 pct — a coin toss.

To help me with the extensive data crunching necessary to prove that The 3% Signal beats the market and pros over time, I worked with an investor and programmer named Roger Crandell, whom I met when he subscribed to The Kelly Letter. We later became friends and he helped me with software and spreadsheets to verify my conclusions.

________________

Your previous book, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing has had an impressive run, selling more than 225,000 copies in its five editions. Tell us about your experience writing the book.

The book has grown with me. When I look back at how much it’s improved over time, I can see all the lessons I learned finding their way into the text. When I wrote the first edition, I relied almost entirely on the wisdom of more experienced investors because I didn’t have enough of my own wisdom yet to offer. What I was good at was gathering different viewpoints, seeing where they agreed and disagreed, and combining them into what I saw as the overall best approach by the best people on Wall Street.

Later, I found my own preferences within this overall best approach and realized that a more focused bit of advice was needed. The risk in distilling only mainstream industry viewpoints is that the resulting program will achieve only middling results, the fat part of the bell curve. As with almost every approach to investing, that one is doomed to lose to indexes. I decided that if I couldn’t offer a method with a reasonable chance of beating indexes, then I should just write another book recommending indexes. I didn’t want to do that, not in the way that it’s always done, which is to just advise buying and holding or dollar-cost averaging into the main market, so I kept looking for the little edges I could find.

I found them, too. One of them was a value averaging system that occupies a tiny corner of The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, and it grew into The 3% Signal.

________________

How did The Kelly Letter get started?

As a way to help readers run a real-time investing program with the advice they’d read in my books. At some point, theory needs to end and orders need to be placed. I used to send out tips to people on my free email list. A few readers asked if they could pay me for more in-depth articles. Then a few more asked the same thing. The first incarnation of my newsletter was a printed paper one sent from my office in Los Angeles. It was called The NeatSheet. When I moved to Japan, I needed to go all digital, and the name of the digital publication became The Kelly Letter. Like my stock book, it has grown over the years as I’ve become better. It’s very good now, based entirely on the signal system explained in my new book.

________________

How was your system that’s presented in The 3% Signal created?

Through a lot of trial and error. The initial thought experiment that kicked off the desire to research it further was related to dollar-cost averaging, or DCA. It’s the sending of a constant amount of money to an investment on a regular schedule, such as every paycheck or once a month. DCA is popular because it’s easy, and it automatically buys more shares of an investment when the price is lower and fewer shares when it’s higher. If you send $100 per month, for example, you’ll buy 20 shares when the price is $5 but 5 shares when the price is $20, automatically. This lowers the average price you pay for an investment to less than its average market price during a time period.

The question that arose when looking at DCA was this: Wouldn’t it work better to send more money when the price is lower and less money when the price is higher? More questions followed. Wouldn’t it be better to send no money if the price is too high? Wouldn’t it be best to actually sell some of the investment if the price goes too high? The obvious answer to these questions was yes. From there, I set off to find ways to determine whether a price was high or low, how to figure the order adjustment based on that, and other details that became 3Sig.

________________

How successful has the technique been?

Very. 3Sig beats buying and holding most indexes, beats all indexes in a program in which the investor adds more money over time (which is what the vast majority of individual investors does, in retirement accounts, etc.), and because most pros lose to indexes it runs circles around just about every famous talking head in the investing media. I’m not kidding. The household names of Wall Street can’t keep up with 3Sig, and therefore try to pretend it doesn’t exist.

It’s basically unbeatable by non-chance-based investing approaches, by which I mean systems that rely on methodical management rather than “gut instinct” and other casino approaches that hope for dashes of luck. Most newsletters are of the latter variety, trumpeting their successes and ignoring their mistakes, and a waste of time. Their editors are not engaged in a practice that is reliable and repeatable. They guess at which stocks will win and which will lose, and they’re right about half the time. This is not enough to trump the market, so they lose.

Among reliable approaches that are measurable because they can be applied in retrospect to past data, and are simple enough for ordinary people to manage, 3Sig is the champion. One aspect of it that I like is that it’s easy to understand why it wins. It uses a small-company index for the growth part of its portfolio. Small companies have beaten large companies over time and have been the best growth segment of the market. The 3Sig formula adds extra performance on top of whatever index it’s using for growth. Therefore, if 3Sig is adding performance on top of the market’s best growth segment, it will naturally beat the entire market. Since pros lose to the market, it will beat them, too. In short, it beats everything and everybody!

In Chapter 7 of the book, I show how three investors earning the same amount of money and investing the same percentage of their salary in the same set of 401(k) choices fared over the 12.5-year time frame from the end of 2000 to the middle of 2013. It included two bull and bear markets, so was a perfect period to use as a backdrop. One of the investors (Garrett) followed media tips from coin-tossing pundits, another (Selma) ran DCA in industry-leading funds, and the third (Mark) ran 3Sig.

It wasn’t even close. Garrett the pundit follower was a goner from the get-go, as is anybody who follows media tips. The relentlessly dollar-cost averaging Selma did well by choosing superb funds and sticking with her plan through all but the worst of the 2008 crash. Mark following 3Sig was not able to fund all of his plan’s buy signals through the 2008 crash, but still crushed his rivals. Look at their ending balances at the conclusion of the 12.5-year time frame:

Garret: $97,971
Selma: $102,929
Mark: $200,031

Here’s a chart showing the path of their balances along the way:

Most people running 3Sig will experience a similar margin of victory over competing methods — while paying no attention to the frenzy of Wall Street.

________________

What has subscriber response been to The 3% Signal?

Subscribers love it. Whatever initial hesitation they felt when I said I was going to manage two of the letter’s tiers entirely by the 3Sig formula and use the formula to guide decisions in the third tier, was dispelled after they saw the formula successfully navigate several quarters of roller coaster headlines. It’s amazing to watch, actually, bordering on uncanny. Last year, it sold ahead of the crash into October, then bought near the bottom ahead of the fourth-quarter recovery. It did so without engaging in any forecasting.

It doesn’t always get the moves precisely right, but its way of buying low and selling high compounds over time in little bursts of outperformance that add up. It’s most appreciated by people who’ve tried using intuition, both their own and that of the experts, to pick stocks and then get the timing right for when to buy and sell them. This method is extremely hard on people, because they get it wrong half the time, yet it remains the method that Wall Street continues pushing because it racks up the most trading commissions and sells the most research and advice.

The stock market is a life wrecker for more people than is commonly acknowledged. Some of those who’ve made their way to 3Sig look upon the method like a newfound religion. I get this. When a person is in pain, they love what soothes the pain. 3Sig soothes stock market pain and heals portfolios.

This is why subscribers have come to love it, and why I believe new readers are going to love it, too.

________________

What are some of the biggest mistakes that people commonly make when investing?

The number one mistake is assuming that their investing ideas count for anything. I hate to break it to people, but we all suffer from the 50 percent mistake rate. You think you know where interest rates are heading? You don’t. You think you know what the price of oil will be in six months? You don’t. You think you know which industry is going to post the highest growth this year? You don’t.

I’m not picking on any one person, because nobody knows these answers, but I need to be unequivocal on this point: You’ve been told that you need to be smarter than other investors to get ahead, but you can’t be smarter because everybody is equally clueless. Accept this and start investing in a way that doesn’t involve guessing the future. There’s a lot of wisdom to be gained from this acceptance and the change in behavior that naturally follows, both of the investing variety and the regular life variety. Humility is a virtue when it comes to facing the future.

Another biggie is not understanding that capital allocation matters. You can get it right five times in a row, but if you blow it in a big enough way on the sixth time, you’ll wipe out all the progress you made. Guess what? Most people make it to that sixth time — repeatedly. 3Sig stops the cycle. It protects people from their own worst instincts. It’s foolproof. It will never chase a harebrained idea, never bet the farm, never miss the bulk of a move, and never puke at the bottom of a bear market. You know what it will do? Nudge performance above the market’s through a series of quarterly actions based on prices alone.

Ideas and gut feelings? Spare yourself. In the financial markets, numbers and the easy math that tells you what to do with them are all that matter. Leave the guesswork to the pros and their 50 percent mistake rates.

________________

What is the one thing you wish everyone knew about stock market investing?

That last thing I just mentioned, that numbers are everything. It doesn’t matter what you or I or the voice-of-the-moment on CNBC thinks will happen next. It matters only that the price of your small-company stock index fund finished the quarter with more than 3 percent growth and should be sold, or less than 3 percent growth and should be bought. That’s the whole story behind how to win at this game. Everything else is just distraction.

________________

What other projects are you currently working on?

I’m focused on spreading the word about 3Sig. I feel that it really is the market’s best practice, the stock market solved, if you will, and that I don’t have much more to say on the subject. I’m still trying different permutations on the 3Sig plan, but nothing has yet turned out to be better than the base case. I doubt anything will.

Beyond 3Sig, I find myself at a crossroads. I’m considering what to write next and I have a feeling I’ll be heading in a new direction. With investing safely on autopilot, thanks to 3Sig, there’s a whole world to explore!

157 Comments

  1. Posted October 19, 2020 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Hello,

    My name is Roy, I own a news website.

    Hope you’re doing well, and you’re maintaining total isolation during the global pandemic.

    I wanted to ask do you accept sponsored articles or a link placement in the existing articles on your website? 
     
    If you do, what are your rates?
     
    Looking forward to working with you, thanks again, and have a great day.
      
    Regards,
     
    Roy
     

  2. Benedicto Yanson
    Posted March 16, 2020 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    The last password I received was on August 2019 but The Kelly Letter has been charging my Paypal account up to February 23, 2020. What happened to my subscription?

  3. Rene M Chapman
    Posted March 10, 2020 at 5:16 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason
    I have finished the 3% signal book and enjoyed it. I subscribed to your pay per month newsletter but I am wondering how I log in.
    Also I am trying to get more info on the 6% Sig and the 9% Sig you speak of. Please let me know where I can read more about this.

    Thanks.

    Rene Chapman
    renechapman@gmail.com
    3062227299 cel

  4. Posted November 30, 2019 at 4:52 am | Permalink

    I just subscribed. Now where do I find my user name and password.

    • Posted December 2, 2019 at 11:16 am | Permalink

      Welcome, Dan!

      We emailed your information to you shortly after you subscribed, and it looks like you’re all set. I’m happy to have you.

      Jason

  5. Roger Radke
    Posted March 10, 2019 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    “The 3% Signal” 2nd Edition with update on 6Sig/9Sig and a big focus on retirement planning would make for a great update of this fine book.

    Cheers, Roger

  6. Larry Rogers
    Posted February 23, 2019 at 4:36 am | Permalink

    I lucked into buying Jason’s book four years ago (3% Signal) while killing time in a bookstore on vacation in Florida. It has totally revolutionized my investment results. I’ve been a daily stock market watcher/investor for some 30 years, but nothing works as well as Jason’s plan. Since Trump’s election in November, 2016, I’m up some 75%. My Mom has her money invested with a large investment firm and she’s up less than 30% in that same time frame. I’m about halfway to my second million dollars now, thanks to Jason, and planning for a wonderful retirement in a few years. Five stars!

    Larry Rogers
    Retired Pastor
    Insurance Agency Owner

    • Posted February 28, 2019 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Larry. What a wonderful testimonial.

      With best wishes,
      Jason

  7. Bill Stepp
    Posted June 5, 2018 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I’m reading your “Neatest Little Guide” now and enjoying it. Next is “The 3% Signal.”

    You might not be aware of this, but the OID apparently no longer exists. I tried to track it down, but can’t get through by phone or their website, and found something online indicating that the publisher lost two close family members around 2010. Several people stated they haven’t seen a copy for a while.

    • Posted June 20, 2018 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

      Hi Bill,

      Thank you for making your way through my books!

      Yes, it’s unfortunate that the OID looks to have closed up shop. It was an excellent publication. I need to mention this on the updates page.

      Happy reading,
      Jason

  8. James Osborne
    Posted April 27, 2018 at 3:00 am | Permalink

    I’ve been running the 3% signal for a few years now, and expanded to the tier 2 and 3 plans as well. One thing I’ve noticed is the drop in SCHZ and AGG over time. I’m comfortable with the ups and downs from the stock indexes, but what advice do you have about the bond funds? Do they typically lose over time, or is this just a bad time for mutual funds and bonds?

    • Posted May 10, 2018 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

      Hi James,

      We’re in a rising-rate environment, so bond-fund prices are on the decline. This will pass, and eventually the bond funds will provide larger distributions. More than 90% of a bond fund’s profit is from distributions, so this works out over time.

      Also, fluctuating bond-fund prices can work in our favor as well, since we move money back and forth between the stock and bond funds of the plan. If we get a quarterly sell signal, for instance, the proceeds from that sale of the stock fund will go into the bond fund at lower prices.

      Happy Sigging,
      Jason

  9. Daniel Loren
    Posted April 19, 2018 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    Jason,

    Hi. Read through a little over 1/2 of the book and definitely find it interesting.

    If someone is sticking to ETFs, I use fidelity, could I use AGG as my ETF bond fund instead of VFIIX?
    No transaction fee with AGG vs BND (vanguard total bond fund).

    Thanks

    • Posted May 11, 2018 at 12:00 am | Permalink

      By all means, Daniel.

      The three bond funds I use in The Kelly Letter are AGG, BND, and SCHZ. They’re interchangeable, so feel free to use AGG in your plan. You could even use it in all three Sig permutations.

      Jason

  10. Jeffrey Thompson
    Posted March 21, 2018 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

    I am normally one that only reads books that grab my attention. Your books have really caught my eyes and they are hard to put down. It takes a lot to grab my attention.

    I served 10 1/2 years in the military and even growing up, no one ever taught me about money or finances, yet alone investing. I will say that I admire the fact that you live in Japan. I lived about an hour south of Hiroshima for two years. There is a lot of history and a great culture there. It is amazing.

    I will get to the point now.

    I live in a small town that has no access to Value Line through a library. Do you have any other information on how to get access to it without me spending $600 to get it? Is there anything that even comes close to the information that it contains? Any ideas would be great.

    Thank you for your time. The cherry blossoms should be in full bloom now, huh? They are beautiful!

    • Posted March 21, 2018 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

      Thank you for the kind note, Jeffrey, and for your service. Hiroshima is a beautiful area of a beautiful country. You’re right that cherry blossoms are just getting going now. Next week should be stunning the Kanto area, where Tokyo is located.

      As for Value Line, I was able to get it online through my local library in Colorado. Is there a library somewhere reasonably close to you what you could join that might provide similar online access?

      Barring that, Morningstar is a cheaper substitute for Value Line, and it comes pretty close to covering the same bases. Also, keep in mind that the Dow 30 components are free to anybody at Value Line.

      Finally, I would like to point you to my preferred approach to investing, which is the Sig systems introduced in my book The 3% Signal. If you run them, you won’t need to do any individual stock research anymore. They use just two funds, one stock index and one bond index.

      I hope these ideas help, and thank you, again, for the note.

      Jason

  11. Greg
    Posted February 10, 2018 at 2:03 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    Have read 3 of your books and I enjoy getting your emails and watching the video’s on YouTube. I also like to read on your site the Q & A’s, but they are all over the place as I have to click on all the links to find any Q & A’s. Why not have these on a separate link? Also, many questions are very old and no answer given; why is that?

    Greg

    • Posted February 12, 2018 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Greg.

      Do you mean the Q&As on this page, or somewhere else? If you mean that you need to explore different parts of the site to find everything, what type of organizational scheme would make it easier?

      I’m open to refining the presentation, and we happen to be in the middle of a site revamping, so I’d like to know what you mean in order to incorporate it into the update.

      Thank you,
      Jason

  12. Miles Hensel
    Posted October 27, 2017 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Hi there,

    I am currently a subscriber to the Kelly Letter. I tried to stop my subscription a couple of months ago because I am no longer interested in reading it. I must have done something wrong because although I no longer receive the letter I am still being billed for it every month. Please cancel my subscription as soon as possible.

    Regards,

    Miles Hensel

    • Posted November 14, 2017 at 10:17 am | Permalink

      Hi Miles,

      I’m sorry to see you go.

      We’ll send an email with a link you can use to stop further payments. We did not see any earlier attempts to cancel. At least no payments have been collected from you since you posted this comment.

      The unsubscribe link is also available in the footer of every Kelly Letter note, and in the menu of the subscriber site. I make it easy to unsubscribe.

      Please watch for the email,
      Jason Kelly

  13. Ethan G
    Posted October 15, 2017 at 5:10 am | Permalink

    In your book “The neatest little guide…” you bring a strategy called Value Trending – where these stocks pulled in over 21% annually. Is there a fund that tracks these stocks and if so, why not use them as the base for 3sig(in this case it would seem to even do 6sig without any need for leveraging) instead of a small cap index?
    Also, after successfully using 3sig for over 2 years, I have a bit of a penchant for putting a small amount of capital into individual. However, this amount would not justify using $200 on a yearly basis for membership to the Kelly Letter. If I would sign up for a month – I understand I would receive a list of quality companies to consider and then I could watch them on my own according the guidelines put forth in the The neatest little guide. By signing up for a month would I receive access to an archive of previous letters that would clearly go through all companies discussed in the past?

    • Posted November 14, 2017 at 10:32 am | Permalink

      Hi Ethan,

      No, I’m afraid there isn’t a fund that tracks those stocks. The management of the strategy is unwieldy in real life, and O’Shaughnessy shows these and other results just to illustrate the effectiveness of various screening formulas.

      Also, no, The Kelly Letter is not a good choice for you if you’re wanting to pick individual stocks. I don’t do that anymore. My Sig strategies have won me over entirely, and the letter now runs three permutations of the Sig plans: 3Sig with a small-cap index and no leverage, 6Sig with a mid-cap index and 2x leverage, and 9Sig with the Nasdaq 100 and 3x leverage.

      Together, they beat the market with no stock picking, therefore no single-company risk and the highest possible odds of full recovery after a crash.

      You are welcome to try the letter for a month anyway, of course, but please don’t do so expecting a quick list of stock picks. You won’t find any. What I believe you will find is a superior approach to investing.

      I hope to welcome you!

      Jason

  14. Ethan G
    Posted October 9, 2017 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    I have read both the 3% signal and the neatest little guide to stock market investing. Neither book touched on option trading. I understand that it is impossible to predict where the market will head- however it would seem that certain options depending on the volatitlity and current market that it there is certainly a probability that certain outcomes are more likely than 50% and sometimes the trade will statistically over many trades come out profitable.
    How do you feel on option trading and is there book / approach to trading options that you would recommend? Thank you very much.
    Ethan

    • Posted October 11, 2017 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

      Hi Ethan,

      You’re right that my books don’t cover options. I have yet to see an options strategy that is applicable to the kind of long-term, low-stress growth of capital that I advocate for almost everybody. I hear from sophisticated investing friends that options play a part in their portfolios, but they have been unable to outpace the S&P 500 over time, much less my 3Sig strategy, much much less my 9Sig strategy.

      So, no, I’m afraid I don’t have any book recommendations in the area of options trading.

      Here’s to your investing future!

      Jason

  15. Allen Schaaf
    Posted July 25, 2017 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

    BTW I forgot to ask about the fractional shares issue. How does one actually do that?

    Next, have you read Robert Lichello’s “How to Make a $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically” book? There are two things that might be of interest in addition to his version, dating from 1977, of buying when low and selling when high. Those two are a later version of AIM with an 80/20 split like yours and a system he calls TwinVest to get people started.

    I have a copy of a TwinVest spreadsheet I could send you if you like.

    • Posted September 29, 2017 at 10:48 am | Permalink

      It was a pleasure emailing you directly about this, Allen, and thank you for subscribing to The Kelly Letter!

  16. Allen Schaaf
    Posted July 25, 2017 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    I signed up for your free news letter. Is it possible to see prior issues?

    I already have both your books and have used them with a financial studies group I started.

    I though that the spreadsheet you mention in Appendix 2 was available for download but I can’t find it. Can you direct me to it?

  17. alex borra
    Posted May 23, 2017 at 8:58 am | Permalink

    In trying to go through the computations of the 3%sig worksheet in order to understand how they are done,
    I cannot find how the IJR shares which are manually entered are arrived at in two instances:

    Q202 (column N cell 8) for 30.30 shares — referred to as excess VFIIX balance
    and
    Q109 (column N cell 35) for 50.19 shares — referred to as only VFIIX balance

    Would appreciate any help you can give me, before giving up,
    and subscribing to the automatic computations you provide with a subscription.

    I think your two books ( 3%sig and the neatest little guide) are excellent and the 3%sig approach is and excellent one
    that I am trying to get my son to subscribe to.

    Thank You in advance.
    Alex Borra
    akborra1@surewest.net

    or (916) 791-6625

  18. Haitham
    Posted May 20, 2017 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Hello Jason
    I wonder if you have an affiliate program for your letter or books. I’m starting my investment blog and would like to do some referral for you

    Thanks
    Haitham

    • Posted July 3, 2017 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

      Hi Haitham,

      I’m afraid I don’t. The best way to make money referring my books is through the Amazon Associates program. Thank you for the interest in referring my work to people!

      Jason

  19. Paul K. Miller
    Posted March 16, 2017 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    Love the videos! You come across very well in them. Please let us know when you’ll be back in beautiful Colorado.

  20. Jerry Anderson
    Posted March 6, 2017 at 4:42 am | Permalink

    Been a member for years. Paypal has again screwed up my monthly payment. I sent you an annual check instead weeks ago. No letter in my email past two weeks. Please return my check.

  21. Sandra Stallings
    Posted October 27, 2016 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    Just found the letter in my spam box!! Thank you . I hope I can understanding after reading the book you are going to send me.

    • Posted November 4, 2016 at 9:16 am | Permalink

      Hi Sandra,

      Thank you for subscribing! I’m glad you’re all set.

      I’ll send a separate note to confirm. Please watch that email address.

      Jason Kelly

  22. Sandra Stallings
    Posted October 27, 2016 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    I signed up for your letter with payment about 3 days ago. Would like to hear that it went thru and should received the letter next Sunday. Thanks Sandra Stallings

  23. dan white
    Posted May 30, 2016 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    WHAT IS YOUR YEARLY PERFORMANCE ???

  24. Nana
    Posted May 17, 2016 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason, just finished reading “The neatest little guide to stock market investing” (5th edition) which i found thoroughly enjoyable. I live in the UK and was just wondering whether the advice given can be directly translated and applied to UK (and European) stock markets, or whether some amendments in strategy need to be made when doing this (if so what are these). As some parts of the book are more focused on the strategies of specific American markets (Dow Jones 30 etc) so would just like to know in general whether you deem it advisable for investors in the UK to invest in US markets (any drawbacks).

    Moreover there does not seem to UK equivalents (focusing on UK stocks) to valuable resources such as the “Value Line” and others you note in your book, do you have any alternatives for readers based in Europe.

    Regards

    • Jan Nemec
      Posted June 7, 2016 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

      Hello,
      I will be also really interested if any ETF equivalent of IJR on European Stock markets. I would like to start the 3Sig strategy but I am affraid of the EUR/USD currency movements.
      Best regards,
      Jan

      • Posted July 2, 2016 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

        Hi Jan,

        I’m not sure of locally-traded ETFs, but there are plenty of options for European stocks via ETFs traded on American exchanges. For a quick list, see http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/europe-equities/.

        If you send me a screen shot or photo of the ETF literature offered by your local brokerage, in English, I can help you choose the right stock fund for your 3Sig plan. I’m building a page that shows good options for investors in various countries around the world. The math is the same everywhere!

        Jason

  25. Kay Arms
    Posted April 2, 2016 at 7:01 am | Permalink

    I can’t find my password and so I can’t get into the site. 🙁
    Help!
    Kay Arms

    • david duncan
      Posted April 26, 2016 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

      i need password help to access the site i have subscribe using paypal

      • Posted April 29, 2016 at 8:04 am | Permalink

        Hi David,

        We contacted you via email to resolve this. You’re all set now. Thank you for subscribing!

        See you Sunday,
        Jason

    • Posted April 29, 2016 at 8:20 am | Permalink

      Just saw this here, Kay. This was resolved later the same day you posted here, so you’re good to go. It’s a pleasure having you!

      Jason Kelly

  26. Michael Kaminsky
    Posted February 12, 2016 at 5:18 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    While researching this book I came across this posting (below) and wonder what your comment would be? Thank you very much.

    Michael

    Posting:
    some quick excel wizardy… Using SPX Index since 1980, with no dividend reinvestment:
    Buy & Hold on 10k start: 135.76 end 1972.29. Returns 1359% Strategy (as i understand it):
    start with 10k, if market returns 3% then take out money put in cash. (i may be understanding this wrong, but I tested above)
    Strategy returns 356% over same time. Need to put in about 39,627 dollars in extra capital on top of initial 10k.
    Assumed commissions were 8.99usd/trade.
    So I would not recommend doing this. a simple 20/200 day MA Cross would have slaughtered this market. I suspect the guy is cherry picking his start date to make the results seem too good to be true.
    EDIT: I ran this on quarterly numbers.

    • Posted April 29, 2016 at 8:31 am | Permalink

      Hi Michael,

      There’s not much to go on here, but one big mistake I see in the summary is taking money out and putting it in cash if the market returns 3%. This is wrong. The plan skims excess profits beyond 3% per quarter into a bond fund. It leaves the majority of its capital in the small-cap stock fund to benefit from the majority of the time when the market is rising, and the safe capital goes into bonds where it earns decent dividends while awaiting buy signals from stock-market underperformance.

      So far, all attempts by third parties to disavow the plan using their own spreadsheets have fallen short. Nobody has found an error in my performance data or methodology, and the plan continues running circles around the pros. So far this year, as it’s implemented in Tier 1 of The Kelly Letter, for example, 3Sig is up 5% compared with just 3% for the S&P 500, both on a total return basis.

      Give 3Sig a shot! You’ll be glad you did.

      Best wishes,
      Jason

  27. Jerry Draheim
    Posted December 19, 2015 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason, I am reading “The 3% Signal” and find it very interesting. I’m 1 of the investors always trying to get better returns without
    understanding the randomness of the markets, but it makes so much sense to me. I never watch the business news, but do get distracted sometimes by what I read. I want to do better and am now considering subscribing to your newsletter. I do have a question. I live in Canada and wonder if your recommendations would be restrictive for me. I know Vanguard has a lot of ETFs
    that trade on the Toronto exchange and maybe i could make adjustments with that consideration. With the strong US$- the
    Canadian $ is now at .71US – trading costs are a consideration for me. What is your take on my situation?

    I am enjoying your book and plan to get copy of your 1st book. I have been investing for 20+ years but want to do better. Thanks and keep up the good work!

  28. Ethan
    Posted December 15, 2015 at 4:17 am | Permalink

    Dear Jason,

    I first read 3% signal and then The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing.

    I noticed that there are few discrepancies. In 3% signal, timing is not advised. Also small caps seem to be the preferred index. Whereas in your first book, timing is discussed at length and mid caps stocks are mentioned as the sweet spot of the market.

    Finally, it would seem that applying a variation of 3sig to leveraged stocks would be prudent. What would be the preferred vehicle in such a scenario (2x or 3x in small or mid caps) and with which ratios of stock/bond and which target growth per quarter.

    Thank you for all your great work in helping other reach their financial goals!

    • Posted December 25, 2015 at 11:53 am | Permalink

      Hi Ethan,

      The stock book looks at several different approaches to the market, plucking out the best of each in my view. The 3% Signal focuses on just one approach, 3Sig, which I consider to be the best of all of them and particularly well-suited to retirement accounts.

      Both small- and medium-cap stock indexes are valuable for their volatility and higher long-term returns. I prefer small-caps for 3Sig due to their highest volatility. For the leveraged strategy you inquired about, I run a 6Sig plan that uses a 2x midcap fund. So, small caps for the traditional unleveraged 3Sig plan, and midcaps for the 2x leveraged 6Sig plan. The use of leverage requires a higher bond allocation, which limits returns in long bull markets. It’s not at all clear that the leverage is worth it, but nor is it particularly dangerous due to the higher bond allocation.

      I run 3Sig in Tier 1 of The Kelly Letter, and 6Sig in Tier 2.

      Have a merry Christmas!
      Jason

      • Ethan
        Posted December 31, 2015 at 6:25 am | Permalink

        Dear Jason,

        Thank you for responding! A few more questions – in 3% signal it’s made to seem that the index is always a better choice than an actively managed fund- and it makes sense, because most lose to the index. However, after reading the Neatest Little Guide, it seems that the market can be beaten with lots of research and investing in winning companies. The methodology you showed seemed pretty straight forward and logical. (even though I’m sure that it requires lots of experience in evaluating the companies – but the overall theory makes sense). How can it be that actively managed funds generally lose to the index and none beating them consistenly- I’m sure you’re not the only person who has their head on straight when approaching which companies to invest in – and according to the percentage of correctness you said in your book you had a 60% accuracy rate in evaluating companies beating the general market. And on the flip side, you quoted even Warren Buffet saying he doesn’t think he can beat the market by very much.

        In a nutshell, how realistic and how much time needs to be invested to try to beat the market by picking winning companies, and does it justify all the effort?

        Thank you.

        Ethan

  29. Alex
    Posted October 21, 2015 at 6:37 am | Permalink

    P.S.: I’m also reading 3sig and I wonder if you abandoned the 20-stocks-portfolio of your strategy in TNLGTSMI to focus only on 3sig or if you still use both.
    ’cause yes, I see the impossibility of predicting the market but isn’t it still correct that buying good companies works long-term (besides the fact that eventually nothing last forever as mentioned in TNLGTSMI)?

    I’d really appreciate if you could answer me thus and my question before.

    All the best!

    Alex

    • Posted October 21, 2015 at 11:44 am | Permalink

      Hi Alex,

      Thank you for the compliments!

      A person would do fine running just 3Sig their whole life. However, if a person wants to diversify beyond it, then the modified 6Sig using the 2x leveraged midcap strategy is a good progression. Details of that strategy are only in the letter, I’m afraid. I haven’t written a book about it yet, but it’s an easy modification of the 3Sig strategy.

      Finally, while individual stocks bought correctly can do well over time, I’ve come to believe that almost nobody has any business picking stocks. Most people are just not good at it, and even if they pick good companies they usually get scared out of them at the wrong times or goaded into them at the wrong times. I realize there are exceptions, and it was for the exceptional people that I wrote my original stock book, but real-life experience since then has shown me that most people should just stick with a system using index funds, and even then should minimize their involvement. Thus was born 3Sig, which beats the market, almost all pros, and probably an even greater percentage of part-time investors — with almost no stress.

      So, I recommend you run only 3Sig for now. Later, if you want more excitement in a reasonable manner, run part of your money with 6Sig if you have access to a 2x leveraged midcap fund. If you want to pick individual stocks, follow the guidelines in The Neatest Little Guide to avoid the big mistakes, ignore almost all media, remember that nobody knows where the market is going to go, and even given all this, restrict the portion of your stock-picking capital to no more than 10% of your overall liquid net worth.

      Best wishes,
      Jason

      • Alex
        Posted October 22, 2015 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        Hi Jason,

        thanks a lot for your time and your precise answer!
        I’ve been already thinking about subscribing your letter but since I’m a student and planning to run 3sig with a small budget I think I’ll do that after my graduation and when my income is higher.
        My start will be only 1,000€ and I’d like to put extra extra cash in my 80/20 “portfolio” in addition to the 3%-plan. Hence, I want to put every extra € available from my student job in my portfolio to grow it for higher compound interest. I didn’t finish “The 3% Signal” yet, so I’m excited about how exactly your strategy works or what types/options it offers. Especially if you don’t have 10,000€ or more as a start, hence much less compound interest.

        Again, thanks a lot for sharing all your knowledge and all the best for your goals!

        Alex

        • Alex
          Posted October 22, 2015 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

          P.S.: It’s really to accept that it’s very difficult to stock picks right and that apparently it mostly destroys an overall performance of a portfolio.. So, I think you’re right in saying that the emotional and ego part of investing might be the hardest.

          • Posted November 10, 2015 at 10:57 am | Permalink

            Without a doubt, and the split-second media distractions and emotional triggers only compound the problem.

        • Posted November 10, 2015 at 10:58 am | Permalink

          You’re most welcome, Alex.

          • Alex
            Posted December 3, 2015 at 1:39 am | Permalink

            Hi Jason!

            I’ve finished your book, let it sink in and decided to begin my own 3Sig-journey.
            Thanks a lot for all your information.
            I already mentioned that my budget is small, so I’ll start without the Kelly Letter but I think your book might be OK for the first quarters. I think I’ll subscribe to the Letter when I’ve got a bigger budget.

            However, all the best to you!
            I’m excited about the future and glad I’ve decided to read your books.

            Alex

  30. Alex
    Posted October 20, 2015 at 3:55 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason!

    I’ve just read “The Neatest Little Guide..”. In my eyes it’s incredibly good. I really like how you explain all the strategies, opportunities, risks, etc. plain and simple yet the same time absolutely profound.
    Thanks a lot for that, especially for the summaries of each chapter!

    Though, I’ve still a question: Did I get it right, that your presented strategy is building a core portfolio like this:
    1.: Quarterly value averaging with IJR
    2.: If the core portfolio grew enough in my eyes: Change to “Maximum midcap”

    Or do you mean that you build a core portfolio by either using value averaging OR maximum midcap? Or both at once?

    I’d really appreciate if you could answer me that.

    All the best from Cologne, Germany

    Alex

  31. Dax Beal
    Posted October 8, 2015 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I recently purchased both of your books, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, and The 3% Signal. I read both of them in only four days, and absolutely love them! I plan to recommend them to many of my friends and family. I do however have a couple of questions.

    In The 3% Signal you state that “…the quarterly schedule is just right,” and that “…frequencies higher than quarterly ones increase activity without increasing performance.” I am wondering why this is? On the surface it would seem that since the plan strives to sell when prices are high, and buy when prices are low, that the more opportunities one gives the plan to accomplish this the more successful the plan will be.

    Secondly, in The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, you explained how leveraging the MidCap 400 index through MVV can be a great investment tool. My question is how would you adjust 3Sig to work with an index such as this that provides for higher returns? It would seem that instead of using a 3% quarterly target you’d want something greater, but I am unsure what would be ideal. What would you suggest?

    Many thanks,

    Dax

  32. doug kucera
    Posted October 7, 2015 at 1:19 am | Permalink

    Hi Mr. Kelly,

    Just finished and enjoyed THE 3% SIGNAL. I was wondering though if you were familiar with the Robert Lichello’s AUTOMATIC INVESTING METHOD (A.I.M.) for lump sum investing, or his SYNCHROVEST system for periodic investing. Both make investment decisions automatic and invest more dollars as the investment declines in price. I have used both with great success for the last 25 years. Any thoughts?

    Thank you and best regards,
    Doug Kucera

    • Posted October 8, 2015 at 9:50 am | Permalink

      Thank you, Doug.

      Yes, I am familiar with AIM and agree with its foundation, as both it and 3Sig automatically take advantage of price weakness, no rhetoric required. A key difference is that AIM seeks to keep buying power available at all times by limiting how much it will move in on the way down in extended declines, whereas 3Sig is willing to go all-in when the current decline on the books calls for it. If such big declines were common, the AIM system would perform better. Because they haven’t been common, 3Sig performs better in most time periods.

      I’m glad you’ve enjoyed success with AIM for so long. Given that, I wouldn’t change a thing if I were you. Confidence in one’s method is very important.

      Best wishes,
      Jason

      • Joe
        Posted December 11, 2015 at 4:54 am | Permalink

        Jason,

        Very timely post regarding 3 Sig and AIM. I’m currently reading both books and pondering my way forward and am now leaning toward 3 Sig for my accounts (401K, IRA and Taxable). That being said, I do have one reservation regarding my taxable account. Since the plan calls for a quarterly check-up, there are potential short-term tax considerations. Does your research indicate the plan would still perform better than a more traditional low cost diversified ETF portfolio within a taxable account (US/Int & Large Cap/Small Cap) that was rebalanced on an annual basis?

        One thought would be for me to run 3 Sig in the tax advantaged accounts and a more traditional/diversified mix within the taxable account or could I just use 3 Sig but with an annual check-up vice quarterly to prevent short-term tax consequences? Would appreciate your thoughts!

        Regards,
        Joe

  33. Gavin O'Brien
    Posted September 4, 2015 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason, Could you have someone contact me via e mail. Am having trouble signing up for your newsletter with paypal.
    Thanks
    Gavin

  34. Posted August 26, 2015 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I simply wanted to add my thanks to your excellent work in this field. I’ve read a number of books on the subject of investing in stocks and when I came across The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing I was really very impressed with both the content and your ability to communicate. When I saw your The 3% Signal at Barnes and Noble, I had to read it. It is exactly what I’ve been looking for, simple and effective. Thank you also for backing this up with your many years of study and applied research.

    I am comfortable with my path forward. Many thanks, Jason.

    • Posted August 29, 2015 at 10:09 am | Permalink

      You’re most welcome, Andrew. Thank you for reading my books, and for taking time to post this kind comment. You made my day! Jason

  35. Gary Jones
    Posted August 26, 2015 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,
    I also have signed up for a full subscription and can not log in because I don’t know my password. Can you please help?

    • Posted August 26, 2015 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

      Hi Gary,

      Glad to have you!

      Sorry for the delay. There was no problem with your subscription. It just takes us a little while to get everything confirmed. You should have your welcome note by now, which contains the current password. Let me know if you did not receive it. Otherwise, welcome!

      Kind regards,
      Jason

  36. Posted July 3, 2015 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    I recently signed up to a full subscription. However, I cannot log into my account because I have forgotten my password. I am having a hard time finding a password reset. Can you help?

    • Posted July 3, 2015 at 10:54 am | Permalink

      Of course! We’ll resolve this with you via email. Thank you for subscribing!

  37. Ishwar
    Posted June 18, 2015 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason
    Thanks for researching, writing, and publishing 3% signal.
    What % of total liquid net worth you recommend people manage using 3% signal strategy?
    Your recommendation for a 70 year old retired couple?

    Ishwar

    • Posted July 10, 2015 at 10:40 am | Permalink

      You’re most welcome, Ishwar, and thank you for the more detailed email you sent separately. It’s a pleasure having you as a reader.

      The 3Sig plan is reliable enough for me to advocate putting all of one’s financial market portfolio into it. The plan comes with a schedule for adjusting into a safer posture for retirement, which you can see in “Adjusting Your Bond Balance as You Grow Older” on p. 152, and Table 33 on p. 153. If a 70-year-old couple is at “Retirement + 5” in the table, then the schedule calls for a 40% target stock allocation, a 60% target bond allocation, and a rebalance when the bond allocation reaches 65%.

      Best wishes,
      Jason

  38. Matt K
    Posted June 17, 2015 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    Huge fan of the book and strategy. My questions is around the funds not invested in the ETF. Would you ever take those funds and place them either in a ‘short’ or inverse equity ETF in the same market, or hedge in another clever way against the asset you’re using.

    My thinking is that when it comes time to rebalance, you would be able to capitalise even further on the volatility. If the asset decreases in value then the short asset should be worth more, so you would benefit when you sold the short etf to buy the ‘long’ asset at a discount. Same goes for vice versa.

    Just a thought at this stage, but i’m keen to hear your thoughts on this.

    Thanks,

    Matt

    • Posted July 10, 2015 at 10:36 am | Permalink

      Thank you, Matt!

      I haven’t tested this, but can tell from the spirit of the idea that it would take a clever bit of market timing for the short fund to work in favor — and the whole reason we need this strategy is that nobody is good at market timing. They’re good at calling dumb luck skill now and then, but not at reliable timing.

      Because the market rises most of the time, the short fund would significantly crimp performance by adding a drag on the overall return. Already, using cash for the safe portion of the plan creates too much drag, hence the preference of using a bond fund for dividend income and some price appreciation, but even allocating a portion of the portfolio to a bond fund causes the plan to lose to a 100% allocation to small-cap stocks in some time periods. Stepping back not to the drag of cash but to the higher drag of a short fund would only compound this problem.

      So, skip the short fund idea and go with a medium-term bond fund or a total market bond fund.

      Best wishes,
      Jason

  39. Sil T
    Posted April 21, 2015 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason,
    I am a long time subscriber, but recently I have not been receiving your newsletter in my inbox. My last letter was dated March 22 2015. Is there a problem? Could you please look into this matter and reply? I have been enjoying your commentary and your perspective from Japan very much. Looking forward to your reply.
    Kind regards, Sil.

  40. Posted April 12, 2015 at 2:14 am | Permalink

    Really enjoy your writing … refreshing! I’m set up and ready to go with the 3Sig plan, but concerned with the safety of bond funds with the current promise of the Fed to raise interest rates. What are your thoughts on this?

    • Posted April 13, 2015 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Jim.

      I’m not terribly worried about the rate-raising schedule on the way due to the plan using either total market or medium-term bond funds, which have lower durations and are therefore less sensitive to rate changes than are longer-term bond funds. All bond funds will suffer a setback in the rate increases ahead, but 90% of bond-fund profits come from dividend payouts, not price appreciation, and those will rise over time in the higher-rate environment. Fairly quickly, bond funds will recoup whatever is lost in the initial rate increase.

      Keep in mind also that z-vals have been warning investors away from bond funds for years already and have been wrong the whole time. Those who sat in cash already lost out on a lot of bond fund profits. Ignoring the z-vals and going with the evergreen stock/bond mixture of the 3Sig plan is best.

      Keep in mind that the 3Sig plan allocates only a target of 20% to bond funds during most of a person’s working years. This, coupled with the minor drops bond funds experience as compared with stocks, makes this issue much less worrisome to people using bond funds in a 3Sig plan.

      Finally, the fluctuations of both funds, bond and stock, work in the plan because it moves capital back and forth between the funds. Sometimes, a lower bond-fund price can be advantageous when the plan calls for selling stock-fund shares and using the proceeds to buy shares of the bond fund. Nobody knows when the fluctuations will happen or in what direction, so just following the plan and not second-guessing what’s going to happen is the best way forward.

      Go get ’em!

  41. Posted March 13, 2015 at 3:17 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason, I’ve read two of your other books including The Stock Market Contest (very clever!) and just finished The 3% Signal. Genius of a book. Thank you for distilling mounds of investment research/wisdom/experience into a simple working plan that ordinary folk can implement. After finishing your book this week, I confessed to my wife, and now to you, that I was Garret. No need to explain, we know the Garret character, and that was me. If you don’t mind, I have a question or two. My current 401(k) is 50% invested in the market. I would like to switch my approach to 3Sig. In your book you suggested moving 25% of a balance into the next buy signals. Since I’m already ‘invested’ more than that, do you think it is OK to start with the same 50% allocation and then introduce the rest in the next 2 buy signals? Next, my 401(k) doesn’t have an appropriate fund that can be tracked publicly, but I’ll give you the full name (I could only find a PDF on the funds when I did a Google search) WF/BLACK ROCK S&P MC INDEX CIT N. There is also of the same but the flavor is RU2000. the expense ratio on the midcap is .074% and the small is .132%. I know you said go with the small cap, but also go with the cheaper one. not sure if there is enough difference in those expense ratios to not take the small cap (the mid cap has outperformed it on all time frames) Other dilemma I have is the bond fund part, really no good options, but I think my correct choice should be TGLMX (TCW Total Return Bond .59% expense)….other option is OSIYX, .79% expense that suffered a 16% loss in 2008.

    Thanks for the tip about adding extra after tax $$ to 401(k) from bottom buying account, I had no idea that was possible.

    Again, thanks for all the hard work and letting us know about 3Sig!!

  42. John Lubberdink
    Posted March 7, 2015 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Just got started reading 3Sig. Only 20 pages into the book. So far very interesting and spot on! Jason you’re on to something.

    I’m going to slowly savor every page as each one contains poignant statements of fact. Thank you.

  43. James Lava
    Posted February 4, 2015 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    I’ve read The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, paid up on The Kelly Letter and am raring to go. However, I was never asked for a password and can’t log on to your site. Please tell me how to get my password. I’m champing at the bit. Thanks, Jim

    • Posted February 5, 2015 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

      Thanks, Jim! It’s great to have you onboard.

      There was no problem with your subscription. It just takes us a little while to get everything confirmed. You should have your welcome note by now, which contains the current password. Let me know if you did not receive it. Otherwise, welcome! See you with a fresh note on Sunday.

      Until then,
      Jason

  44. Scott
    Posted November 23, 2014 at 6:07 am | Permalink

    I own the 3rd Ed (2010) of TNLGSMI. I understand that there’s newer information in subsequent editions. As such, my question is, would I miss out on critical updates were I to purchase only The 3% Signal coming out next year, or would it be prudent to purchase the latest edition (I realize purchasing both is better for your sales) in addition to the new title?

    Thanks!

    • Posted January 30, 2015 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

      Hi Scott,

      I would hold out for The 3% Signal if you want to get just one. While the updates in the fifth edition of my stock book are worthwhile, it’s a book that covers timeless truths so you won’t get so much more out of a later edition than you got out of earlier editions. The 3% Signal, however, introduces a whole new technique that is the new best practice for people managing retirement accounts, college savings accounts, and aiming for other long-term goals with the profit potential of stocks.

      I recommend pre-ordering 3Sig so you’re read to participate in the live Twitter Q&A @TheKellyLetter on March 3 at 7pm EST. I hope to see you there!

      Jason

  45. Thomas
    Posted November 2, 2014 at 12:56 am | Permalink

    We are now empty-nesters who have done our best to comply with the three c’s while raising our children. No credit card debt, driving used cars and our home has a manageable payment well below the 80% loan to value ratio. Our problem is with student loan debt. We paid as much as we could with cash while the kids were in college, but still managed to rack up about $48k in loans. We cannot find a rate lower than 7.5% anywhere and it is frustrating to discover what a racket this business of education has become. We were naive enough to think we were just doing the right thing for our kids and now we’re sorry…any suggestions? On top of that we are now facing the responsibilities of an upcoming wedding. Yikes!!!

    • Posted January 30, 2015 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

      Racket is right, and it’s only getting worse. It was shocking when President Obama suggested taxing 529 accounts so that the savings of hard-working families trying to put their kids through college one day would be diluted down to provide kids from families that didn’t prepare with free community college. Talk about bad judgment! Even top Democrats upbraided him for the proposal.

      As for what to do with the $48k in college loans, continuing to pay it off steadily at the 7.5% rate you found is about the only choice. I thought of using money from your 401(k) and other retirement accounts to pay off the debt, but it doesn’t make sense at an interest rate of less than 15%, and your 7.5% is half of that. Maybe the kids should kick in a little from the paychecks from the jobs they were able to get with the degrees you paid for!

      The one tip I can offer on the long-term money-growing front is to run 3Sig in your investment accounts. It beats the market without stress, which seems like something you could really use.

  46. Zane Quible
    Posted September 29, 2014 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    Jason, I really enjoyed your book so am thinking about subscribing to your newsletter. However, I did not find information anywhere on the Web site regarding subscription cancellation. Can you please send me details about canceling a monthly subscription should one wish to do so?

    Best wishes.

    Zane

    • Posted October 1, 2014 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Zane!

      I use Amazon Payments, where subscribers control their own payment arrangement directly at Amazon. At any time, the subscription can be canceled there. Whenever a person sends a note asking to cancel, I return directions for logging into the Amazon Payments site and then canceling it directly.

      I hope to see you on the list soon!

      All my best,
      Jason

  47. Gurnam Singh
    Posted August 19, 2014 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    I thoroughly loved reading your recent edition of “stock market investing” and have followed the strategies so well explicated in the book. Your book continuously impressed with so much input and information about the many opportunities of investing in today’s marketplace. I would like to be one of the first to buy your next edition when it becomes available.

    I shall be very grateful if you would be kind enough to give some of your expertise advice on the following etfs.
    ProShares ultra Dow or ProFunds ultra Dow, MVV or UMPIX

    Both MVV and PoShares were up in today’s market, the other two mentioned above didn’t do so good. Please explain the differences between ProShares and ProFunds. Out of the two which would be a safer investment. Do you think it would be worthwhile to invest in MVV and ProShares ultra Dow, they both did good today.

    I would highly appreciate if you could offer any tips on any other stocks that is projected to do better in the future in both growth and value portfolio. Any advice from you shall be deemed very highly and I will never hold you accountable for the advice that you afford me. I hold a lot of respect for you sir.

    Yours truly,

    Gurnam Singh

    • Posted September 29, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

      Thank you for the kind words, Gurnam!

      The best way to use leveraged funds is on a quarterly rebalancing signal, and in conjunction with a safety fund. The wider volatility is perfect for automating the process of buying weakness and selling strength, each being judged by its distance from the constant growth signal line.

      This can work with individual stocks, too, but is best with indexes because they can’t go bankrupt. This provides confidence to actually follow buy signals in times of panic. The system I describe in my new book, The 3% Signal (on sale February 24, 2015) and implement in The Kelly Letter is set up in such a way that the deeper the weakness, the bigger the buy signal; the higher the strength, the bigger the sell signal. Indexes are best for this, and it’s an added bonus that they’re cheaper than actively managed funds. The leveraged version of the plan is a different beast with different target allocations between the growth fund and safe fund, but nonetheless operates on the same principle.

      The unleveraged vehicle I use in Tier 1 of the letter is IJR. The leveraged vehicle I use in Tier 2 of the letter is MVV. In Tier 3, I attempt to beat Tiers 1 and 2 with my own stock picks emphasizing high dividend yields coupled with high volatility. Such stocks are hard to find, but the letter has assembled a good handful of them and is always looking for more.

      Thank you, again, Gurnam.

      All my best,
      Jason

  48. greg segura
    Posted August 17, 2014 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Hello

    I’ve been subscribed for a year or so but the last couple months I haven’t received the Sunday letter.
    Did something change in the delivery of the content?

  49. kevin fiinegan
    Posted July 5, 2014 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Jason,

    Just finished your book. Thank-you! Now we’ll see.

    I believe I subscribed to: The Kelly Letter. Ck. for me please because I have not rec’d one. Maybe this inquiry to too early.

    Kev

    • Posted July 8, 2014 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Kevin! I didn’t see your subscription, so please give it another shot. See you on the list soon!

  50. Francisco Diaz
    Posted June 18, 2014 at 12:58 am | Permalink

    Kelly,

    I purchased your monthly letter 2 days ago but I’ve not been able to register in your site yet. I checked the spam section and is fine but not emails or instructions on how to be able to register in your site yet. Please I need your support ASAP.

    Thanks!!

    FD

    • Posted June 20, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

      We took care of this for you, Francisco, and you’re all set now. Welcome!

  51. vince
    Posted May 30, 2014 at 10:39 am | Permalink

    I have read your book, it provide great insights on how to be an investor. However i have a few questions. The SMA MACD RSI, what are they exactly. I saw in your book how useful they are in finding the right time to sell or buy but are these charts projections or recorded data? Are there any SMA MACD RSI chart projection out there? If not then how can we actually use these charts to know when to buy or sell in the future?

  52. Arturo Madrueno
    Posted May 28, 2014 at 2:01 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,
    This is the first book of stock that I have read. I’m from Mexico and here there is no information or very poor, I’d just want to say that is a great book for beginners like me. And I also want to start investing on a online broker in the US. I know there are very good brokers but for a guy like me that lives in Mexico , which one can you recommend living outside US and as a beginner in the stock world. I’m checking TD Ameritrade but the only thing is that is ranked as the most expensive ones.

    Thanks! I will surely wait for your new book coming,
    Arturo Madrueno

  53. Emanuel
    Posted April 25, 2014 at 2:12 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I own two of your books and really enjoy how your present your material. You really seem to understand the Markets well. I have a question, I’ve recently been seeing a lot of “2014 crash similar to 1929” and other notices regarding a market meltdown. What are your thoughts on these and the markets predictions for 2014?

    Thanks

  54. Will
    Posted April 4, 2014 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    Hello. I’ve been reading through your book and I’m trying to figure out how to calculate a book value for a stock share. It may be early since I’m literally only on chapter 2, but I’m excited and love learning fast, lol. I just want to make sure I’m understanding how to calculate this correctly. I understand the formula is:

    Book Value = (total equity – preferred equity) / shares outstanding

    So I went to Google and looked up the stocks for a random company for the purposes of only calculating. In this case, I chose Starbucks. Going under Financials and Balance Sheet, I see it says *total equity* is 5,169.30 Million. The total number of shares outstanding at this time is 755.90 Million. So would it be correct to calculate:

    Book value = 5,169,300,000 / 755,900,000

    I don’t see where I’m supposed to find “Preferred Equity” anywhere in this. And with that calculation, it makes a book value of 6.84, which seems really low considering the stock price is 73.38 as of this time. How can I find the preferred equity on this so I can calculate the correct book value? In case you’re wondering, I’m simply trying to get P/B ratio on stocks since most finance sites seem to not have anything on it except for “last recent quarter” information

  55. Dennis Hester
    Posted March 23, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Jason, excellent information. I am going to purchase, “Financially Stupid People Are Everywhere: Don’t Be One Of Them” for my two children. I’m 62 and I’ve made a lot of those mistakes in the book. I’m not to old to learn and start doing better, but sure wish I had been better informed about finances when I was younger. As you talked about, things are not going to get better for America as a whole, but it can get better for individuals that will educate themselves on the truths in your book. How can I help get your message out to more Americans so we will have a chance to at least change a little bit of America? Thanks for your message. Keep it up.

    • Posted April 29, 2014 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Dennis! It’s an eye-opener, no doubt, but books of its type tend to deliver minimal impact because the people most in need of the information don’t read such books, thus the information preaches to the choir. Oh well. At least it’s out there. Jason

  56. Brian Steer
    Posted March 20, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Good morning Jason

    Just read your books on stock market and mutral fund investing and loved both of them.
    Are you going to do a swing or day trading book?

    Best regards
    Brian

    • Posted April 29, 2014 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      Thanks, Brian. No, I won’t write a trading book. My next book is about what I consider to be the best long-term system for beating the stock market with minimal stress: The 3% Signal. It’ll be out early next year.

      Jason

  57. Steve Ripley
    Posted February 1, 2014 at 4:08 am | Permalink

    Please unsubscribe me from your mailing list.

    • Posted February 1, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

      Thank you for trying the free list, Steve. We went to unsubscribe you from the list but found that you had already unsubscribed yourself by clicking the link at the bottom of today’s note. So, you’re all set now. We’re sorry to see you go!

      For others who might be curious: We use what’s called double opt-in on the email list. People enter their email address to join the list, and then need to click a link in a note sent to their address to confirm that they really do want to join the list. This way, only genuinely interested people receive what is sent to the list.

      When somebody wants to exit the list, as Steve did, the proper way to do so is by clicking the unsubscribe link that’s included at the bottom of every note. Steve is now no longer receiving notes that don’t interest him, and we don’t get penalized by the big email companies as we would have been if Steve had marked the note as spam instead. It wasn’t spam, because he asked to receive it, he just didn’t want to receive it anymore.

      It’s easy to jump on and off the list, as it should be. This is a no-spam zone!

      Thank you for handling this the right way, Steve.

      Jason

  58. Ryan Pahl
    Posted January 28, 2014 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I wanna start first off on how wonderful your book The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing is and how easily you are able to communicate to the reader. What seperates a good book from a great book is the ability to capture an idea or a perspective and properly communicate it. I have read a few other books and articles and many seem too boring and lifeless.

    I am just getting into investing but have found the market and what affects it fascinating since I was younger, and finally have the time and capital saved to start fulfilling my dream of becoming a full-time investor. Your book started me off very nicely. Thank you.

    I do have a few questions I wish to ask you:

    What are your thoughts on Forex and E-Minis? Are there any books you recommend on these topics?

    Thank you very much for your response.

    • Posted January 29, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

      Thank you for the kind words, Ryan. I’m happy my book is helping you.

      I don’t recommend currency or futures trading for most people. While it’s possible to do well with them, most people don’t and it’s rarely worth the time. General stock strategies of the type you’re reading about in the book will serve you better over your life as part-time investor, partly because they will not blow up as easily. There’s a temptation to think that the more exotic an investment is, the more potential it offers. Usually, it’s just the opposite. The goal isn’t to be exotic or cool, it’s to build wealth, and the permanent portfolios in my book do this.

      I wish you well!

  59. Eldon Meeks
    Posted January 26, 2014 at 3:57 am | Permalink

    I have been signed up and never received the letter to my e mail listed above.

    I recently set up my account again (today) and want to make sure I get it.

    I love your stuff!

    Dr Meeks

    • Posted January 27, 2014 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

      Thank you for the compliment! You’re all set now, Dr. Meeks, and it’s a pleasure to see you back on the list.

  60. Tamar Frankiel
    Posted December 16, 2013 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    I subscribed but am not getting the letter.

  61. Angel Iglesias
    Posted October 30, 2013 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    I would ask if you can made your book “The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing” “2013 Edition “available through Audible.com?

    Thanks you for your review

  62. Dan
    Posted October 28, 2013 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    Hey Jason thought id congratulate you on such an easy to read to read and understand guide on investing. I’ve been looking into this for months now so thank you for the knowledge and advice. I’m 20 now and plan to start investing this month. ill let you know when I become a billionaire and of course give you and your book due credit. I’m excited to start researching companies as we speak.
    Good Luck;
    Dan

  63. Walter Brown
    Posted September 18, 2013 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    Mr. Kelly just finished reading your book and I loved it. I just started investing the beginning of this year and feel your book has armed me with valuable information to be successful with the market. You mentioned in your book a method of buying or selling shares to achieve 3% growth quarterly, should we do this with individual company stocks we own? Thanks

  64. Posted September 9, 2013 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    I’m reading your book and loving it. I want to subscribe to your newsletter and plan to do so. I spend my winters in Cambodia. With the time differences would arrive on Saturday instead of Sunday? thanks Jason!

    • Posted September 15, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Randy. The letter goes out Sunday morning New York time, so it would arrive in Cambodia on Sunday night. Hope to see you on the list soon!

  65. James M
    Posted September 4, 2013 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    I have finished most of the Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing (2010, didn’t notice that a 2013 edition was already out…). Great book.

    I’ve been making the Stocks to Watch Worksheet as described in your book but I’m a bit stuck. Instead of using Value Line, I am crunching out all of the numbers myself based on company balance sheets, etc, just to get a bit more comfortable with this kind of information at the start. I am comparing my results with free Value Line reports just to make sure I’m doing everything right. I’ve been doing well until Cash Flow Per Share.

    No matter what I do, I can’t get a number which matches the Value Line figure. I am doing this with Verizon, trying to arrive at their 2011 Cash Flow Per Share number on Value Line. Using the figures from my TD Ameritrade account, Cash flow/Shares Outstanding for 2011 just doesn’t equal 7.96 as listed on Value Line. I am using the 2011 figure of 2.83 billion shares outstanding, and I can’t come up with a Cash Flow number that results in 7.96. I’ve tried using Total Cash from Operations and various other figures but nothing works. Am I just looking in the wrong place or missing something obvious? Thanks a lot!

    James

  66. Jacob B.
    Posted August 27, 2013 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

    Dear Jason,

    I just finished reading The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing. Your method of describing things has put valuable knowledge into my hands. I am a college student nearing my undergraduate degree, and began investing earlier this year for my first time ever. I have put your experience to use with success and hope to do so again and again. I have thoroughly enjoyed your work. When my friends and colleagues begin their investing venture, I will be sure to recommend this guide. Cheers.

    • Posted August 29, 2013 at 9:40 am | Permalink

      Thank you, Jacob. It’s excellent to see somebody getting an early start. Time is your friend in this business. Remember to learn with small amounts of money, not big. Best of luck to you!

  67. Robert Konshak
    Posted June 29, 2013 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Hi there–just a note to say I just finished reading “Y2K: It’s Already Too Late,” and I love the book. Where’s the movie version? Get Nicolas Cage as Mark Solvang.

    • Posted July 9, 2013 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

      Talk about a daymaker, Robert! Thank you so much for this blast from the past.

      I haven’t seen a reader comment on Y2K since, well, Y2K. I’m glad you loved the book. So did, and do, I! It was made into a TV show that didn’t do well, and once the year 2000 passed without incident, all Y2K material faded quickly. We’ll file it under nostalgia for the time, but your note rekindled many fond memories in me of the book tour and the breathless interviews in 1998 and 1999. People really were worried back then, and some of the discussions about over-reliance on technology were fascinating. To this day, it remains the most interesting book promotional experience I’ve ever had.

      Thank you, again!

  68. Chris
    Posted June 20, 2013 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    I just finished your TNLG 2013; great book and very helpful to a new investor. I’ve read the mutual funds and stocks “for dummies” books, but they didn’t offer much guidance on when or why to invest- just the basic facts and metrics- while TNLG offers both useful metrics and some basic, insightful rationale.

    Anyway, I’m looking at the IJR and UMPIX and IDPIX charts and I’d like to know if I should apply the Watchlist criteria to them to determine when to buy? If the IJR is consistently ~3%/quarter then it will not get markedly undervalued, correct? Likewise for the leveraged ETFs, if I use the Watchlist criteria, that tells me to wait for another bear market unless I’m missing something.

    • Posted July 9, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Chris!

      While the VA plan grows the stock portion of your account at the reliable 3 pct per quarter, it does so with the help of the associated cash account. This is why it’s best to wait until the plan issues a buy signal at the end of a quarter in which IJR failed to grow at least 3 pct. Until then, keep saving into your cash account so the money is ready to go when the plan issues a buy signal.

      The plan does become undervalued in down markets, and continues issuing buy signals until the recovery kicks in. We saw this in the big collapse during subprime, but more recently in the sovereign debt downgrade summer of 2011. The stock portion of the account, IJR, can drop dramatically in a quarter or series of quarters. That’s what enables us to use the safe cash portion to pounce on the lower prices and later benefit from the recovery.

  69. Eric
    Posted May 31, 2013 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    Jason,

    Great book! First book I read on investing, and now I’m thirsty for as much knowledge as possible. Well written with funny humor sprinkled throughout.

    One question…when you explained your method of value averaging for steady growth using the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (IJR), you mentioned that your rule is 3% quarterly growth, and then explained your method on how to achieve this. This makes perfect sense to me, but did you arbitrarily pick 3%? Can I get greedy and pick 4%? 5%? Or is 3% the optimal amount with the lowest risk? Thanks!

    • Posted June 7, 2013 at 1:08 am | Permalink

      Thank you, Eric!

      The sweet spot is 3% per quarter. This turns into 12.6% per year, about 20% more than the market’s long-term annual rate of growth, and the right mix of risk/reward. Quarterly is key, too, as monthly schedules produce inferior results. As simple as it is, the book’s small-cap VA plan is a finely tuned formula that beats the market and almost all pros over time. I’m working on a book dedicated to it now. I think it’s basically the only investment plan any long-term investor will ever need, and once they begin it they never need to watch financial news again. Nothing feels better than running circles around the loud-mouthed pros while tuning them out entirely.

      Good luck to you!

      Jason

  70. Sil Tartal
    Posted May 30, 2013 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I am a long time subscriber to your newsletter and enjoy your take on the world investment landscape. My small business participated in the Socks for Japan campaign. We are proud to be associated with and to support your efforts.

    Recently somehow my subscription to your newsletter through Amazon was cancelled (not by me). I would like to continue my subscription at my original rate if possible. How do I go about doing this?

    Kindest Regards,
    Sil

    • Posted June 7, 2013 at 12:52 am | Permalink

      Thank you for the kind words, Sil. You and I corresponded by email and your subscription was already reinstated. It’s a pleasure having you as a subscriber!

      Until soon,
      Jason

  71. Steve Crooks
    Posted April 23, 2013 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    Just finished reading “Stock Market Contest” and enjoyed it thoroughly. Thanks so much for writing it!

    Steve

    • Posted May 8, 2013 at 11:55 am | Permalink

      You’re most welcome, Steve! Find a niche and know it better than anybody. That’s about the only way to get ahead in stocks because it focuses our pattern-recognition instincts in a way that can help. “I know this company” or “I know this cycle” can be useful realizations if they enable you to know when the niche prices are cheap and expensive. Jason

  72. Henry Moore
    Posted April 19, 2013 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Hey Jason,

    I recently have finished The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, and let me first say it’s very well written, easy to understand, and I feel that it is a very good book that every new investor should read. While on your website, printing some of your worksheets, I saw your book Stock Market Contest and am very interested in reading it, however, I prefer not to read off e-readers, and was wondering will that book be coming out in a paperback or hardcover form (and if so, when)?

    Henry

    • Posted May 8, 2013 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Henry! I, too, would like to see SMC in paperback, but it’s only in e-reader format now and I’m not sure when it will arrive on paper. I’ll send a notice to the free email list when it does. Since you’re on the list, you’ll be among the first to know! Jason

  73. Jay Lewis
    Posted December 12, 2012 at 6:20 am | Permalink

    Thanks Jason,
    I have just finished reading the neatest little guide to stock market investing and as someone who is about to venture into investing for himself this book is so much help, thank you.
    The only issue i have is trying to do the math on the examples you give through out the book on percentages, some of them i just divide the smaller number by the larger one, in most cases it works out, but the others I’m no where close.
    Am i doing something wrong?
    Keep up the good work, your help is invaluable.
    Jay

  74. proudprogressive
    Posted November 25, 2012 at 2:19 am | Permalink

    POOR PEOPLE CAN’T AFFORD TO SUBSCRIBE TO I.B.D, VALUE LINE, AND S&P AT THE SAME TIME. THANKS FOR NOTHING!!!!!!!

    • proudprogressive
      Posted November 27, 2012 at 10:56 am | Permalink

      Sorry, for getting so irritated. I’ll just have to do the work long hand. Your book was great. Especially, the how history tells us to invest section.

  75. Carter
    Posted November 15, 2012 at 5:31 am | Permalink

    Hello, I’ve bought your book a few days ago and I loved it.

    But now I got to the Chapter 4 “Permanent Portfolios” the topic “Value Averaging for Steady Growth”.

    There is a chart that shows your strategy in work, but you’ve bought shares at 65.07 starting from the end of 2006 until the end of 2008 as prices falls, but it looks like you are losing money in 2 years. It shows that you got $211.
    What if prices will stay at $44 dollar per share forever or even fall more ?

    Can you please help me to figure this out ? I believe that your strategy is winning and just want to understand it.

    Thank you!

  76. Posted October 18, 2012 at 5:42 am | Permalink

    Jason – I read your neatest little guide. One of your models that I’m interested in is the combination of large stocks dividend rate and stock buyback rate. Can you tell me where to find the buyback information – is it available on brokerage sites like tdameritrade.com, value line, investors business daily, motley fool, or is it necessary to go thru the company web sites 1 by 1 to find it?

    Thanks –
    Steve

    • Posted November 5, 2012 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

      Thank you, Steve, and please pardon the late reply. Busy, busy!

      There are plenty of places to get stock buyback information, the easiest being quarterly filings by the company as shown at EDGAR, but also at Morningstar, Value Line, and other stock profile providers.

      Honestly, though, often the fastest way to find buyback activity is to just search the company’s name and the phrase “stock repurchase” or “stock buyback” at Google News.

      For example, “IBM stock buyback” produced the following in a few seconds:

      InvestorPlace
      10/31/12

      IBM announced that it added $5 billion to its stock buyback program. In all, $11.7 billion are available for purchases, which represents about 5% of the outstanding shares. Plus, IBM tends to follow-through on its buybacks. It purchased roughly $3 billion in stock for the past two quarters.

  77. Val
    Posted July 24, 2012 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    Hi,

    Can I ask if you are the same Jason Kelly that was promoting BGBR as a great stock pick 2 years ago?

    Val

    • Posted September 21, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink

      No, I’m not. A shady outfit found a person named Jason Kelly so they could legally market ineffective timing software under my name to piggyback on the success of my stock book, letter, and other material. There’s nothing I can do about it except continue producing a body of investment literature that helps people achieve long-term success in financial markets — no gimmicks required.

      General tip: Steer clear of anything promising short-term riches. That’s not how markets work. Wealth is created over time by using a set of proven principles. Done right, it happens quickly enough. When people try to speed up the time involved, they blow themselves up. If they’re the banking system, they blow the world economy up.

  78. Carlos O. Soto
    Posted July 15, 2012 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Bought your Neatest Little Guide two days ago (Fully Revised and Updated, third revised edition) and have devoured it with gusto. Sincere thanks from a newbie to this material.

    Came to your website to sign up for your $5.48/month (per page 164 of the book) Kelly Letter and — BOING! — the stock has gone up 364%!

    Best Regards,
    Carlos
    Miami, FL

    • Posted September 21, 2012 at 10:32 am | Permalink

      Yes, the price of the newsletter has increased since the 2010 edition of the book. The new price is reflected in the 2013 edition, which will hit shelves in early December. The new price reflects a completely redesigned subscriber site with better research and tracking capabilities, a weekly podcast, midweek research note postings and, maybe best of all, active discussion forums with a crowd of smart fellow subscribers — moderated and improved by me. It’s worth the new price.

      Thank you for the kind words and for your interest in the letter!

  79. John in Oregon
    Posted June 24, 2012 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    Jason, All I can say is WOW. I have been a subscriber for at least 3 years but I just had a chance to log in to your new Webpage and it is awesome. I feel sorry for others who are not taking advantage of your forums. Great work and like Nathalie, I love your recent “the neatest…” book.

  80. Posted June 6, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,
    Thank you for your book “The neatest…” I just got my hands on it and am on page 15 and already have learned so much. You really deliver.

    Also, thank you for the socks in Japan. I went to Haiti as a doctor after the earthquake three times and the needs are incredible. (www.mymedicalmissions.com)

    Keep up the good work!
    Nathalie

  81. John in Oregon
    Posted May 29, 2012 at 3:34 am | Permalink

    I can’t log on either. I’ll try a different computer and let you know if I have success.

  82. Robert Owens
    Posted May 2, 2012 at 1:51 am | Permalink

    failed to receive the last letter and web site will not allow me to log on

  83. pete larson
    Posted March 7, 2012 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    Hi Jason,

    I’m a new member and having trouble logging on? It seems to be rejecting my user name or password. Is there a way to remind me what it is, or issue me a new one?

    Thanks.

  84. Chris Gore
    Posted March 5, 2012 at 3:58 am | Permalink

    Jason,

    I have not seen the letter today are you having some issues?

    Thanks,

  85. Robert Owens
    Posted January 24, 2012 at 7:03 am | Permalink

    I am not sure when my subscription is up, but I do want to renew. Read your last letter(for the second time this P.M.) and am not amongst the cull group. I am a conservative republican (married to a liberal democrat) and find the letter to be fun to read, even if I do not agree with everything. Curious though, if Reno did not receive any snow in December, and that last occured 128 years ago, are we dealing with global warming or just a cyclical weather pattern. Back to the market, have shares of Apple and wonder what your thoughts are on where might be the top?

  86. Lorraine
    Posted January 12, 2012 at 1:46 am | Permalink

    Good Morning

    Could you please tell me if “The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing” is available on Audio?
    Are any of your books.

    Thank you

    • Posted January 12, 2012 at 8:57 am | Permalink

      Not yet, unfortunately. I’ve contacted my editor at Plume to see about doing one later this year, and will let you know what I hear back.

    • Posted January 13, 2012 at 9:25 am | Permalink

      My editor said it’s too early to know for the 2013 edition, but she put out feelers to Plume’s audio team and will let me know more as the year progresses.

  87. Miguel Jurado
    Posted November 16, 2011 at 3:51 am | Permalink

    Jason,

    Like four months ago I bought your book, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing, then one and a half months ago I entered a contest here in Mexico to play like in the real market and try to obtain the biggest return in six weeks, starting with a million (obviously not real) pesos.

    As I’m sitting here writing, I’m nervous because as of yesterday, I held the sixth position out of approximetely 10,000 contestants, the contest ends at 3 CT today Nov 15th, and I have to give it to your book this success, because there’s no other word but success, my expectations were to finish below the first 500 and finishing in the top 100 was a wild dream.

    Anyway, thank you, man.

    Sincerely

    Miguel Jurado
    Monterrey, Mexico

    • Posted November 17, 2011 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

      Congratulations, Miguel! That’s fantastic. Everybody’s going to think I paid you to write this comment, but you and I know I didn’t — and so do the managers of the contest. Did you win anything by placing in the top 10? Even if not, the pride and wisdom are compensation enough.

      Your comment couldn’t have arrived at a better time, as I just published my new book, which is called Stock Market Contest, about the Colvin Real Estate Group’s money race. How about that? Take a look and see if the 15-year saga among 10 contestants in my book matches your experience in any way.

      Thanks for the exciting note!

      • Miguel Jurado
        Posted November 17, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

        Jason,

        I have to update the info: I finished in second place and this is the proof (www.retoactinverimagen.com.mx). Also, the number of contestants was 5,500.

        Next to my name you’ll see an amount, that’s in pesos.

        Thank you, Jason, and I’m at your service.

        Regards,
        Miguel Jurado

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