Stock Market Forecasts
This page provides a running tally of stock market forecast accuracy. If other, larger studies are any indication, it will eventually settle on a 50% accuracy rate, same as a coin toss.
It’s important to understand that stock market forecasters cannot add value to your investing performance. Acting on their hunches will reduce your profit. It’s best to call them something that reminds you to ignore them: Z-vals.
The term z-val (“zee val”) is a shorthand introduced in The 3% Signal for “zero-validity forecasters” and “zero-validity environment.” The latter phrase was coined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, where he wrote that “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.”
This page is the Z-val Zone of Stock Market Forecasts.
The table below lists forecasts as they’re added. Accuracy is displayed once a z-val has at least one forecast tracked. Recent forecasts are shown below the table. For a complete history, see the Z-val Zone Judgment Schedule.
The purpose of this page is not to harm anybody’s reputation, but to show investors that guessing games don’t work. Click on some of the names below. Read their convincing forecasts. Notice:
1. The list of worries is a repeating one.
2. Bearish forecasts are usually wrong.
3. The way to win is to stick with an effective plan.
I recommend my Signal system of rational reaction as the best effective plan for Point 3 above. It takes into account the repeating factors of the stock market and its historical tendencies, and reacts rationally to what unfolds, no forecasting required.
Once you understand that forecasting is unhelpful, join me in looking only at past prices instead of guessing future ones. It will boost your performance and lower your stress.
To beat the market using a proven forecast-free system, please sign up for The Kelly Letter.
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All Forecasts
RIGHTTBDWRONG
Investors need to watch only one number in 2017 to figure out what returns are going to look like across the various markets, bond guru Bill Gross said Tuesday. Whether the 10-year Treasury yield crosses the 2.6 percent mark will be critical both to the bond market and to stock prices, the fund manager at […]
Posted in Z-vals
| Tagged Bill-Gross
“With bonds, we’re at the peak of the biggest financial bubble in world history. This is a very big deal. “Interest rates move in very long cycles. They went up from the mid-1940s to the early ’80s, when long-term government bonds peaked at close to 16%, and T-Bills at over 16%. I thought they hit […]
Posted in Z-vals
| Tagged Doug-Casey
“Clearly what we have right now is a market that is finally realizing that this could be a repeat of what we saw in the UK in terms of Brexit — not necessarily meaning that Trump will prevail, but certainly that it will be much tighter come election day. “That’s really the theme of the […]
Posted in Z-vals
| Tagged Steen-Jakobsen
“The market may be finally realizing that there are limits to what the Central Banks are able/willing to do to keep this gravy train going. On Friday we saw the Dow drop 394 points on the HINT that we may be coming to an end to the stimulus both here and in Europe. … “Without the […]
Posted in Z-vals
| Tagged Ken-Moraif
In a cheerless missive to investors, Paul Singer at Elliott Management warned that the bond market is broken and that once central banks lose their ability to prop it up, the crash will be big. This is a recurring bearish argument, but always popular. Singer says now is “in many ways the most peculiar period […]
Posted in Z-vals
| Tagged Paul-Singer
