|
The Kelly Letter
Want to know what I'm buying and selling?
The Kelly Letter will
tell you. In it I put the proven strategies of my Neatest Little Guide
series of bestselling books to work with real money. Watch your wealth grow steadily through quarterly value averaging in Tier 1,
leverage and timing the "sweet spot" midcap index in Tier 2, and trading individual stocks and ETFs in Tier 3.
From the
beginning of my career, I've believed that market-beating investment information
shouldn't be expensive. That's why my books cost less than $15, and why
The Kelly Letter is just $5.48 a month.
Please read on to learn about this affordable, steady, clear path to wealth. It's a
beacon in a sea of overpriced services that trade often but succeed rarely. I
hope to welcome you soon!
Cost
$5.48 per month.
You can
unsubscribe at any time and remain forever on my free list.
To read more about this low-cost philosophy and then return to
reading at exactly this point, click here.
Format
Plain text email, plus a subscriber-only area of this site.
Purpose
To provide readers with clear investment guidance
that maintains a long-term, steady growth path with the majority of the
portfolio while taking advantage of medium-term trading opportunities
with a minority of the portfolio.
Frequency
Weekly, for the most part. Occasionally I miss a week
and sometimes I send two notes in one week. To give you an idea,
I sent 96 notes in 2006, 60 notes in 2007, and 69 notes in 2008. This is NOT a high-volume trading
list with "breaking"
news and split-second decisions. That way of investing costs a lot
of money and produces inferior results.
Performance
Outstanding.
My Tier 1 value averaging strategy returns 3% per quarter, rain or shine.
My Tier 2 Maximum Midcap strategy outpaced the market by a wide margin until the crash of 2008, when it fell back to the market's growth level. That prompted me to change its approach to enable me to time it with charting techniques to protect gains against future sell-offs. More below.
My Tier 3 individual trading positions have done very well over the years, and I've closed
81% with gains. The actual percentage of winning
positions is higher, but many long-term positions are still open and therefore
don't yet count toward the total. Sometimes stocks take a sudden downward plunge
and require a quick sell at a loss to protect capital. Long-term winners, by
contrast, stay open a long time without counting toward the winning percentage.
That's why the percentage is skewed to the downside. Even in light of that, I
still have an 81% winning record.
Some performance highlights:
Tier 3 trades so far in 2009 as of May 1:
ZSL Silver -2x gained 15% in 2 weeks
DXO Oil 2x gained 18% in 1 month
FAS Financials 3x gained 33% in 3 weeks
BGZ Russell 1000 -3x gained 44% in 3 weeks
BGU Russell 1000 3x gained 54% in 2 weeks
Tier 2 Maximum Midcap in recent years:
Maximum Midcap gained 60% in 2003
Maximum Midcap gained 29% in 2004
Maximum Midcap gained 19% in 2005
Maximum Midcap gained 10% in 2006
Maximum Midcap gained 6% in 2007
Maximum Midcap lost 68% in 2008
Tier 3 trade selections from before 2009:
McAfee gained 30% in 17 months
Level Three gained 33% in 4 months
Panera gained 35% in 10 months
Deckers Outdoor gained 40% in 2 months
Grant Prideco gained 50% in 19 months
Ariba gained 60% in 5 months
Intel gained 64% in 10 months
Maxtor gained 65% in 5 months and
60% in 3 months
Sun Microsystems gained 72% in 8 months,
66% in 4 months, 5% in 1 month, and 3% in 2 weeks
My Tier 2 Maximum Midcap strategy receives a lot of attention because it's one of the permanent portfolios in my stock book. It's supposed to beat the Dow over time, and has, even including its old methodology that took such a hit in 2008. Starting in 2009, it brings the added benefit of timing to avoid future disasters like the credit crisis of 2008. Here's a chart of its performance against the Dow using the old methodology without timing:
After the new methodology with timing has established a track record, I'll post a chart of it here as well.
CXO Advisory Group has maintained an independent audit of my
performance since September 2001, from which the following is taken:
We conclude that:
•
Over the past few years, Mr. Kelly's forecasts have been accurate
about 60% of the time, which is pretty good.
•
His style might be characterized as intermediate-cycle Buffet-like
(patience awaiting intermediate-term value), focused on entry and
exit points for a few stocks in the context of overall market climate.
He sometimes buys, sells and rebuys the same stocks.
•
Mr. Kelly looks to buy (sell) during states of maximum gloom
(euphoria) stemming from what he regards as superficial indicators.
Seasonal trends are an important consideration for him.
In summary, Mr. Kelly's intuition regarding intermediate- term
stock market trading merits consideration by investors and traders.
|
This is a performance and audit result that you should not underestimate.
Most investment services, including the famous and expensive ones, deliver inferior
performance -- yet cost considerably more than The Kelly Letter. Let's look at some examples.
James Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS email service costs $59.95/month.
Mr. Cramer is the host of Mad Money on CNBC and Co-founder of
TheStreet.com. Here's an excerpt from the CXO Advisory Group's report on
his performance:
•
Mr. Cramer is right about 46% of the time with his stock market
predictions, just below average.
•
His predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic,
and back again, over short periods. It is difficult to infer his guiding
valuation theory, if he has one. We wonder whether he tends to be swayed by
the arguments of forceful advocates with whom he most recently interacted.
•
[Mr.] Cramer's assessments of viewer-proposed stocks probably have no economic
value. His typical viewer would be better off in a broad index fund.
•
He sometimes anchors on historical analogies (samples of one), such as: "it's
'91 all over again" or "I'm placing my bets for 2004 strictly using 1994's
tip sheet."
In summary, Mr. Cramer's stock market calls since May 2000 have low consistency
and an accuracy somewhat south of coin-flipping (just below average). He seems more
a stream of uncalibrated opinion than a stock market maven.
|
Surely you can trust Standard & Poor's right? Wrong. Its newsletter
The Outlook costs $29.95 per month. Here's part of CXO Advisory Group's
report on its performance:
•
Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about the accuracy
of "The Outlook's" forecasts, its bottom-line advice about market direction has been correct
49% of the time, about average.
•
If we had traded the S&P 500 index based on Outlook suggestions, we would
have decreased U.S. equities exposure four times and increased it three times
during 5/9/03 through 2/18/05. Assuming that returns on cash would have offset
trading fees, following the Outlook suggestions would have slightly
underperformed a buy-and-hold approach, mostly because suggested reductions in
stock exposures come after significant market declines.
|
There are many additional eye-opening reports from CXO Advisory Group's unbiased
audits. A sampling:
On Dan Sullivan (The Chartist, $175/year): "His view is generally long-term; his short-term
calls have coin-flip accuracy. The summary writings available at Zacks.com
are unclear, even contradictory, with respect to exactly when he called the
current bull market [and] advised a 100% investment level."
On Richard Moroney (Dow Theory Forecasts, $24.95/month): "Mr. Moroney is
reactive, moving toward cash after a market decline and toward equities after
an advance, reminiscent of S&P's Outlook. Moreover, his adjustments in
his recommended cash-equity ratio are too small to make a substantial difference
in returns. His short-term calls are equivocal, sometimes right and sometimes
wrong."
On David Dreman: "When Mr. Dreman speculates about the magnitude and/or direction
of future changes in the overall market, he is right 52% of the time, which is about
average."
On Doug Fabian (Successful Investing, $99.95/year): "Over the past decade [ending Oct. 2005],
his newsletter's U.S. stock market timing advice has significantly lagged a buy-and-hold strategy. . . . Fabian's
system generated a sell signal on 10/10/05 -- pretty bad timing. . . . For the 12
months ended July 31 [2004], VIP Investor lost 33.6%. In contrast, the dividend-reinvested
Wilshire 5000 gained 18.3% during this time. Obviously, this is a particularly catastrophic result
for Fabian. . . . Fabian the younger is not up to his father's performance standard. Other sources of market
advice likely offer more value."
Now back to The Kelly Letter. After reading the above reports, you
can see why I'm proud of my track record, and why the letter is such a bargain at
just $5.48 per month.
Finally, all strategies that I use are explained fully in my
Neatest Little Guide series of financial books which includes the
Business Week best seller, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market
Investing (currently in its 2008 edition, with its 2010 edition coming later this year). The proof that these strategies work is clearly presented
for all to see anywhere books are sold.
Few advisory services can say the same.
Intended Audience
Investors looking for a steady hand in a market
that is awash in more conflicting information than ever before, yet abides
by the same time-tested rules it has always observed.
Anybody can put up
a website. Anybody can send email. Anybody can get interviewed by the
ever-growing list of print media, radio programs, websites, and television
shows. This does not make them experts, nor does it make their advice
sound, nor does it mean you need to take action whenever a call is issued.
Their posing as experts makes them tempting advisors to a public that has
been taught that investing is easy and necessary. It is neither.
However,
when approached with emotional control and a firm grasp on
the fact that the phrase "get rich quick" should be struck from the
language, it can be profitable.
Guided Tour
Many investment services send convoluted or noncommittal market
calls that can be interpreted several different ways. This is an
attempt to cover for later mistakes. "Well, we never actually said
to buy, you see. Please go back and read carefully and you'll notice . . ."
goes the typical refrain.
Not here. I send clear notes with precise buy and sell points. If I
change a price, I send a note immediately so you can
update your own orders to reflect the new price. You know what I plan
to buy or sell and at precisely the price I plan to do it. When and if
that price hits, I update the portfolio and send a note. When I make a
mistake it's plain for all to see and I don't try to hide it. Nothing
could be clearer.
This guided tour shows you exactly how each section of The Kelly Letter
helps you.
Permanent Portfolios
One of the defining elements of my
books is their constant quest for automated, successful investment
strategies. These are the permanent portfolios, designed to beat
the Dow and S&P 500 over time. There are two shown in The
Kelly Letter:
Tier 1: Value Averaging for 3% Quarterly Growth
Tier 2: Maximum Midcap with Timing
Here's how they're presented in the letter:
|
------
TIER 1
------
Steady 3% Quarterly Growth by
Value Averaging the S&P SmallCap 600 Index
Trading Frequency: Once at the end of each quarter
iShares S&P SmallCap 600 (IJR)
- So far this year: -4.2% (from $43.82)
- Last action: Bought 48 shares at 36.20 on Mar. 30
- Shares currently owned: 276
- Next action during: Week of June 28
Last week: IJR 41.96 +0.3%
------
TIER 2
------
Beat the Market by
Leveraging and Timing the S&P MidCap 400 Index
Trading Frequency: Monthly buys, rare sells to avoid big drops
ProShares Ultra MidCap 400 (MVV)
- So far this year: -1.0% (from $24.86)
- Recent action: Bought at $19.52 on Mar. 30
- Trend: Sideways
- Next action during: Week of May 3
Last week: MVV 24.62 -0.3%
|
|
The two strategies are explained in Chapter 4 of my
book, The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing.
Up to 2008, the Maximum Midcap strategy that is currently Tier 2 was a fully automated approach that invested more money at the end of each month regardless of the stock market environment. The beauty of that approach was that people could continue running the strategy without my input.
However, the strategy prohibited me from using charting and other timing techniques I use with stocks and ETFs to get Maximum Midcap into the safety of cash ahead of any big market drops I saw coming. The damage of 2008 proved that Maximum Midcap needed more flexibility to limit downside damage from its leverage. That leverage is why the strategy does well in up markets, but also why it gets decimated in down markets.
That's why I changed to the new three-tier format. The new, fully automated strategy is in Tier 1 and its value averaging approach helps it get through rough markets better than the dollar-cost averaging approach used in the former Maximum Midcap strategy. I want to be able to offer subscribers some type of fully automated system because there may well come a time in their lives when I'm not available to provide advice. That's why I'm pleased to include automated, steady growth via Tier 1.
The strong outperformance of Maximum Midcap in good times proves that it's almost always a great approach for putting money to work because the market rises twice as often as it falls. However, the leverage in the strategy needs assistance during the one-third of the time that the market falls -- especially in big bears like we saw in 2008. That's why Tier 2 keeps the spirit of the former Maximum Midcap alive, but with the added safety of my being able to get to cash in times of crisis to protect the gains made in up markets.
Trading Positions
Next is Tier 3, the investments we own outside of the permanent portfolios. Some of them we hold for weeks, others for months, still others for years. Here's how they're shown:
|
------
TIER 3
------
Improve Portfolio Performance by
Trading Individual Stocks and ETFs
Trading Frequency: Variable
OPEN POSITIONS
Bought Name (SYMBOL) at $18.15 on 1/31/08,
at $14 on 10/3/08, and at $10 on 10/22/08 (basis is $13.24)
- Closed 5/1 at $11.77
- Since last monthly issue: +28.6%
- Since investing: -11.1%
- Action to take: hold
Bought Name (SYMBOL) at $47.20 on 10/4/08
- Closed 5/1 at $74.75
- Since last monthly issue: -0.7%
- Since investing: +58.4%
- Action to take: set 5% trailing sell stop
Bought Name (SYMBOL) at $30 on 3/17/09
- Closed 5/1 at $32.66
- Since last monthly issue: +1.2%
- Since investing: +8.9%
- Action to take: hold
|
|
These listings are pretty straightforward.
The "Action to take" is what you should assume I think about the position until
you receive an email informing you otherwise. Sometimes I specify a limit order
to put in place. For example, in a recent issue, the action to take on
one position was to double down at $25. We had previously bought it at
$28. When it did indeed hit $25, we invested the same dollar amount that we invested the first time. (That's the meaning of double down.) Our new average buy
price became $26.42.
You should know that I often buy more shares of positions that have gone down
in value. I research thoroughly and believe firmly in my picks. When they decline
in price, I usually view it as a chance to get a better bargain for the same great idea.
In the early 1990's, I bought IBM (IBM) nine times before it finally bottomed out and
made a fantastic recovery. I've averaged down on many stocks since then, including
Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Dell (DELL), Google (GOOG), Intel (INTC), Maxtor (MXO at the time, but since acquired by Seagate [STX]), Starbucks (SBUX), and Sun Microsystems (SUNW at the time, now JAVA). Every one of the ones I already sold turned around and made money for me; I'm confident that the ones I'm still holding and/or acquiring will become profitable one day, too.
To read more about my way of building a position and then return to
reading at exactly this point, click here.
Actions Taken Since The Last Issue
Here I list everything that happened in the previous month. You
will have received an email either telling you to place the order
if it's for something that was not mentioned in the previous issue,
or confirming the order execution if it was for something from
the previous issue. In the example above, subscribers
received a note saying that the stock had hit $25 and we bought.
Notice that when a position is completely closed, I show its
history. It's common for me to buy and sell in stages rather
than all at once. Gradual moves are helpful in a fluctuating
market. Below you can see one stock that was sold in stages, and one that
was sold all at once.
Here's the section:
|
Actions Taken Since The Last Issue
Sold all remaining shares of Name (SYMBOL)
at $20.70 on 4/14:
- Bought at $18.09 on 11/11/08
- Sold half at $19.66 on 1/16/09
- Sold one quarter at $21.29 on 3/17/09
- Sold one quarter at $20.70 on 4/14/09
- Average sale price: $20.33 (+12.4%)
Sold Name (SYMBOL) at $22.33 on 3/23
- Bought at $14.50 on 3/09
- Sold at $22.33 on 3/23
- Performance: +54.0%
|
|
Open Orders
These are the orders that are actually placed, ready to execute. They
are usually stop losses on positions we own or limit orders to buy a
target position or add to an existing position. Very rarely, I'll take
a short position.
Here's the section:
|
Open Orders (orders already placed)
Buy Name (SYMBOL) at $7.75 (to initiate)
Buy Name (SYMBOL) at $3.60 (to double down)
|
|
If there's an "Action to take" in the Strategy Summary section, it's
duplicated here. The Open Orders section provides you with a quick glance
at what you should have on the books.
Note that I sometimes change the prices of these open orders and inform
you via email of the new price. For example, if the first stock falls quickly
on bad news to close at $7.78, I might move the buy price down to $7.50
in search of a slightly better bargain. I do my best to inform you of
changes well in advance so you have time to adjust your orders.
I almost never send notes requiring split-second action on your part.
Don't expect to receive an email with the subject "SELL NOW!"
from me. The market is volatile and unpredictable and I have sent
notes requiring same-day action, but it's very rare. I detest timing strategies.
They don't work and they're too
stressful. The Kelly Letter is not one of them. The standard plan around here is to
research carefully, set target prices calmly, and let the market wander
where it will. Adjustments, if they happen at all, are not frantic.
Watch List
These are investment ideas that I'm watching, but for which I have not
set firm price targets yet. There are no orders on the books.
The prices listed are just the levels at which I would start
looking carefully to find the best entry point. When one of these
price levels is hit, I usually send a note mentioning that
XYZ Company has "come into range" and warrants consideration.
I sometimes watch stocks for months and, in one case, years before I buy.
Usually I don't buy. Watching is a big part of this business. Doing
nothing is often the best choice. Subscribers receive updates from me weekly, but we sometimes go a month or two without buying or selling anything.
Please understand this before joining me. If you're looking for fast
paced, shoot-from-the-hip stock trading, my letter is not for you. When
you are poorer and wiser from having tried that approach, please come
back and give The Kelly Letter a try.
If, however, you're seeking a methodical, leisurely paced approach to
the market with little action but big results, then consider joining me.
Here's the Watch List section:
|
Watch List (orders not yet placed)
[L] Buy Name (SYMBOL) at $30
[M] Buy Name (SYMBOL) at $10
[H] Buy Name (SYMBOL) at $2.50
[H] high risk | [M] medium risk | [L] low risk
|
|
Articles
The investment techniques above work, and work well, but what really sets this
letter apart from other services is its curiously readable articles. There's more to
investing than numbers. Investing is an ideas business, and ideas are best
when they're interesting. There's no reason we can't have a little fun when
we're making money.
Many subscribers say the letter is the high point of their Sunday mornings.
More than a newspaper, TV show, radio broadcast,
or magazine, The Kelly Letter provides an erudite summary of all you need to
know -- which is far less than popular media would have you believe. If you're
tired of mass market information packaged for kiddie culture as insulting to
your intelligence as it is useless to your portfolio, join me. You're not
alone. There are other thinkers on Earth, though fewer every year.
To read article excerpts and then return to
reading at exactly this point, click here.
Unsubscribe
At the bottom of every note I send to you is a link to unsubscribe or change subscriber
options. You can unsubscribe or change your name, email address,
and so on using that link.
Of course, unsubscribing is a step I hope you never take. Happily,
few people do. As of January 2009, only 19% of all people who've
ever tried The Kelly
Letter have unsubscribed. That's one of the industry's lowest figures,
and one of my proudest talking points.
Why the high satisfaction? Because it's cheap, it works, and it's
pleasant. So many investment services are unapproachable
or mysterious about their methods, as if they're doing
something that ordinary folks wouldn't understand. Don't
fall for it. They're not doing anything that's beyond
anybody else. Just look at their results to see.
You may be able to find a service better than mine somewhere, but you won't find
a friendlier, more accessible voice to accompany you on a profitable
journey through the stock market.
It's a pleasure to work hard for you. We make a lot of
money, more than almost any other subscription service including
the most famous and expensive ones, and yet the monthly cost is less
than a trip to McDonald's.
If the key to making money in the market is to find
bargains, then consider The Kelly Letter to be your first
success.
What Others Are Saying
“I have learned a great deal in the short time I have subscribed to your letter, not only about stocks, but about business in general. ... I find your enthusiasm infectious and encouraging, enjoy your writing style, and while I don't always agree with your analysis and opinions on things, I really enjoy reading them and always look forward to reading your weekly letter and updates.”
– Martin Triggs
“You have helped me turn my average portfolio to a market crushing portfolio.”
– Jeremy Miller
“No one else has ever sent me any of these personal 'best wishes' sort of emails. That says something about you. The world could do with a few more Jason Kellys. This sort of thing takes just a minute and is good for business but I don't get the sense that this is the only (or main) reason you do it.”
– Mark Bray
“I wanted to thank you for your sincerity, honesty, and candidness in your latest newsletter. I think you, and Warren Buffett, are the only two stock analysts that ever make it a point to tell the people they represent that they may have missed something.”
– Cade Ruhlman
“I do not use any other subscription service. I enjoy your wit and humor, and especially your philosophy that great investing advice shouldn't be expensive.”
– Sam Fong
“Your readers get to hear from a 'real' person, and they gain more of an appreciation of the soul behind the words.”
– Cheryl Cuttineau
“I now subscribe only to IBD and the Kelly Letter because they are both the best value.”
– Daniel Dahlke
“This newsletter remains the most understandable review of the market, and the most prescient outlook, that I've ever read.”
– Tim Patnode
“This holistic approach is much more 'real world' to me than books, websites, or newsletters that only address specific trading techniques.”
– Sid Norris
“I really like your style of writing. I sometimes re-read a section, not for the stock info, but because I love the way you write.”
– Sami Abu-Saad
“Your insightful notes, colorful comments, and unexpected humor make for an exceptionally interesting and valuable letter. Thanks for all your work in sharing it with us at a great price.”
– Paul Langrock
“You have caused me a time management problem. I used to spend 1-2 hours a day studying the WSJ, IBD, NYT, Fortune, Forbes, etc. and now I just match what you do and am doing much better than before.”
– Ron Davis
Getting Started
Subscribing is a snap, and pretty low-risk at just $5.48 per month. If at any time you want to
cancel, no problem. The automatic charges will stop immediately. You can stay on my
free email list forever.
After signing up below, you'll receive the most recent monthly issue in a day
or so, along with a user name and password for accessing the subscriber area of my
website where you can see the most recent notes and complete archive. All future updates and
issues will be emailed to you immediately after I finish writing them.
Ready? Let's get you started:
You may also pay annually by PayPal or check.
|
|
