Author Archives: Jason Kelly

Are Stock Prices Too High?

In this video, I’ll explore whether stock prices are too high, and therefore likely to crash. Bearish pundits frequently say the stock market is overvalued. What does this mean? Usually that prices are higher than they have been in the past when compared with another measurement, such as earnings or sales or even as a […]

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How to Improve Stock Market Backtesting

In this video, I’ll show you one way to improve your stock market backtesting results. This method is the one used by my research partner Roger Crandell and me when refining The 9% Signal. One common problem with backtesting is curve fitting, which is finding a system in retrospect that would have maximized returns in […]

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How to Handle Rising Interest Rates

In this video, I’ll consider whether you need to take any steps to prepare for higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve has signaled its desire to raise interest rates. From The Telegraph: [Story shown in the video, at 0:24.] There are three primary areas of your financial life to review in preparation for higher rates […]

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Stock Market Analysts Are Useless

In this video, I’ll provide more evidence that stock market analysts are useless, with help from Sarah Gordon at the Financial Times, who recently summarized today’s installments. I call analysts “z-vals” for their 50% mistake rate. It’s a shorthand of the term “zero-validity environment” used by Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow […]

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Do Investors Need News?

In this video, I’ll consider whether investors should see any difference between fake news and useless news. Since Donald Trump was elected, there’s been an obsession with fake news. This story from Politico shows Facebook in the fray: [Story shown in the video, at 0:25.] Factually incorrect news is obviously useless, but what about factually […]

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