Gundlach: Another Wave Down

“The reason the markets aren’t going lower is people are holding and hoping. The market bottoms out when people are selling and sold out — not when they are holding and hoping. I don’t think you’ve seen real selling in risk assets broadly. Markets need buying to go up and they need volume to go up. They can fall just on gravity.”

DoubleLine Capital co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach warned after the weak jobs number on Friday that the US equity market as well as other risk markets including high-yield “junk” bonds face another round of selling pressure.

“People are acting like everything is great. Junk bonds are at a four-year low. Emerging markets are at a six-year low and commodities are at a multi-year low — same level as in 1995 … GDP is not growing at a nominal basis. … Clearly what’s happening is people are waking up to the idea that global growth is not what they thought it was.”

Even International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde affirmed this, Gundlach said: “You talk about an important moment when somebody who is traditionally a cheerleader for a bright future says, ‘I have to downgrade my global growth forecast,’ as Lagarde did.”

— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly

_____________________________________

Z-val: Jeffrey Gundlach
Via: Reuters
Date: 10/2/15
Disposition: Immediate-Term Bearish
S&P 500 on 10/2/15: 1951
S&P 500 on 11/2/15: 2104
Change: +7.8%
Judgment: Wrong

Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.

Gundlach

Scorecard

This Forecast

Accuracy

of 1

Judged

Forecast

Created with Snap
This entry was posted in Z-vals and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.
  • The Kelly Letter
    A Complete Investment Management System
    The Kelly Letter  every Sunday morning by email.
    Like no other. Many subscribers say this is the best read of their week, astonishing in its ability to distill seven days of noise into one succinct overview of the very few items that might matter. Start your Sundays right!
    A one-page Quick Start Guide
    with page number references to full information in The 3% Signal. You'll receive access to this right away so you can begin transforming your portfolio into a performance machine immediately.
    The 3Sig Calculator.
    A thing of beauty! You'll use it to generate your own personal signals every quarter including exact share amounts to buy and sell based on your account balances. It emails you the results to make later quarters easy by keeping last quarter's numbers at your fingertips. Some subscribers say this tool alone justifies their subscription price.
    The subscriber-only section of this website
    where likeminded investors are commenting on notes and discussing in forums. Jason joins these interactions every day. They're a treasure trove of investing tips and wisdom.
    The archive of Kelly Letter notes.
    It’s a research center, searchable and smartly tagged to make gathering time-stamped material on covered subjects easy.
    The subscriber podcast.
    Jason reads every letter word-for-word. This feature was requested by subscribers who prefer audio learning. They listen on their Monday morning commute, during a workout, or while reading along at their computer.



    $200/year
    Save 17%



    $20/month
    Pay as you go
    Or sign up to receive free email and learn more about the system.
Bestselling Financial Author