“It’s important to recognize that the S&P 500 is down only about 6% from its record high, while the most historically reliable valuation measures are double their historical norms; a level that we still associate with expected 10-year S&P 500 nominal total returns of approximately zero. We fully expect a 40-55% market loss over the completion of the present market cycle. …
“As I noted early this year, market crashes ‘have tended to unfold after the market has already lost 10-14% and the recovery from that low fails.’ Prior pre-crash bounces have generally been in the 6-7% range, which is what we observed last week, so I certainly don’t see that bounce as having removed any of our concerns. We remain extremely alert to the prospect for much more extended market losses.”
— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly
Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.
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