Kass: Shorting Bonds, Yields Will Rise

“[I am] adding long ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) (inverse bond ETF at $23.91) to my Best Ideas List, as I now expect a steady but slow rise in bond yields over the next few years. …

“Growth signposts remain weak –- and this is now well known and grounded in consensus. China and Japan are slowing. The US is traveling at a subpar 2% to 2.5% growth rate and, while showing some improving trends, the eurozone is operating at about 1% to 1.5% growth. It is generally recognized that the unbelievably low sovereign debt yields around the world are serving as “gravity” to contribute to lower US rates.

“While I remain of the view that global growth will be subpar, I suspect that bond prices around the world have now more than discounted this. Moreover, the peripheral yields in Europe likely represent, to me, a parabolic move in bond prices, which are ‘bubble like’ and unlikely to be sustained at such low levels. Should ‘loss of faith’ occur in the ECB and other central bankers, that bubble might quickly burst.”

— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly

_____________________________________

Z-val: Doug Kass
Via: Tumblr
Date: 4/1/15
Disposition: Long-Term Bearish
20-Yr Treasury Yield on 4/1/15: 2.23%
20-Yr Treasury Yield on 4/1/16: 2.20%
Change: -1.4%
Judgment: Wrong

Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.

Kass

Scorecard

This Forecast

Accuracy

of 6

Judged

Forecasts

Created with Snap
This entry was posted in Z-vals and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

One Comment

  1. Posted April 26, 2015 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    ‘Breaking Dawn : Part 1’: Latest Trailer and Photos of Pregnant Bella.
    Many people can agree that they like finding out about new games.
    Plus, theme music and movie song lists for a special touch to any celebration.

  • The Kelly Letter
    A Complete Investment Management System
    The Kelly Letter  every Sunday morning by email.
    Like no other. Many subscribers say this is the best read of their week, astonishing in its ability to distill seven days of noise into one succinct overview of the very few items that might matter. Start your Sundays right!
    A one-page Quick Start Guide
    with page number references to full information in The 3% Signal. You'll receive access to this right away so you can begin transforming your portfolio into a performance machine immediately.
    The 3Sig Calculator.
    A thing of beauty! You'll use it to generate your own personal signals every quarter including exact share amounts to buy and sell based on your account balances. It emails you the results to make later quarters easy by keeping last quarter's numbers at your fingertips. Some subscribers say this tool alone justifies their subscription price.
    The subscriber-only section of this website
    where likeminded investors are commenting on notes and discussing in forums. Jason joins these interactions every day. They're a treasure trove of investing tips and wisdom.
    The archive of Kelly Letter notes.
    It’s a research center, searchable and smartly tagged to make gathering time-stamped material on covered subjects easy.
    The subscriber podcast.
    Jason reads every letter word-for-word. This feature was requested by subscribers who prefer audio learning. They listen on their Monday morning commute, during a workout, or while reading along at their computer.



    $200/year
    Save 17%



    $20/month
    Pay as you go
    Or sign up to receive free email and learn more about the system.
    Do you have a question?
Bestselling Financial Author