Kass: Market View Remains Negative

“My market view remains negative and I am positioned defensively. Thus far, the market is indifferent to what I have seen as a deterioration in the macroeconomic trends and to rising geopolitical threats. …

“Adding to the fundamental issues (estimated 2015 S&P profit forecasts have consistently dropped from $137/share to $119/share) is that sentiment is elevated (as the bull market in complacency has hit a new high) and many of the most important valuation methodologies are seriously stretched (including Shiller’s CAPE, Buffett’s Market Cap/GDP, etc.) …

“Arguably, Mr. Market is beginning to launch into the giddy phase … Nevertheless, despite the enthusiasm and extraordinary price momentum, I anticipate that my next move will likely be to meaningfully increase my short exposure (but only on a momentum break).”

— Excerpt contributed by Chris Kentimenos

_____________________________________

Z-val: Doug Kass
Via: Tumblr
Date: 3/4/15
Disposition: Short-Term Bearish
S&P 500 on 3/4/15: 2099
S&P 500 on 6/4/15: 2096
Change: -0.1%
Judgment: Wrong

Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.

Kass

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