“Sentiment has rarely been higher … Nothing, it seems, can shake the faith investors have in this market. And that has me worried. …
“US economic data is rolling over … with a variety of data points — from factory orders to retail sales and consumer confidence — recently missing to the downside. On Tuesday, we got soft readings on the housing market via the NAHB housing market index and factory activity via the Empire State Manufacturing Index. …
“This is a dangerous situation, with expectations so high and separated from the situation on the ground that it won’t take much disappointment for reality to come rushing back in. Maybe that’s why the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge,’ increased 7.6 percent for its first gain in a week.
“How dangerous a situation? How about July/October 2007 dangerous? … Plan accordingly and resist the urge to top-tick this market.”
— Excerpt contributed by Jason Kelly
Z-val definition and more forecasts in The Z-val Zone.
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