Let’s look at a rundown of the good and bad comments about Apple’s iPhone, gleaned from dozens of reviews.
First, the good:
Now, the bad:
This first iteration of the iPhone is crippled by its dependence on AT&T.; The second or third generation will be free of that, and it looks worth waiting before shelling out the kind of money needed to jump onboard the iBandWagon.
There’s the rundown on the phone. The question for investors becomes, Will the iPhone live up to Wall Street’s expectations?
In the short term, I doubt it.
At the low end, UBS projects that Apple will sell 950,000 units by the end of September and 8.1 million by the end of September 2008. At the high end, Credit Suisse projects 1.7 million and 12.3 million units sold in the same time frames.
Those are astronomical projections. The wildly successful iPod itself sold just 10 million units in its first three years. Yet, the iPhone is projected to sell that many in a little over one year?
Even Microsoft’s XBox 360, which costs just $400, sold only 1.5 million units in its first quarter, and that was worldwide, not just in the U.S. like the iPhone. The XBox has been for sale around the world for seven quarters now, and has sold just 12 million units.
I find it hard to believe that the iPhone will live up to expectations. With shares of Apple having risen 44% this year in anticipation of the iPhone’s release, the stock looks vulnerable to a sell-off.
With the stock over $130, I’m eyeing it as a possible short. Your thoughts?
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